Paul Krugman raises problems
for the status quo even when he’s being optimistic about the future.
Last month in the New York Times, he penned a column
that asked: Is Growth Over?
He concluded that mainstream economic forecasts are too pessimistic because
they can’t incorporate the exploding importance of smart robots in
manufacturing and increasing in service industries, as well.
Private and, eventually,
public employers will be able to grow profitably and expand their services
without being as tied to the growth of the work force as they seem now. Society
will look greyer. The workplace, on the other hand, will increasingly reflect
the unpredictable tastes of robot manufactures.
“So
machines may soon be ready to perform many tasks that currently require large
amounts of human labor. This will mean rapid productivity growth and,
therefore, high overall economic growth.
“But
— and this is the crucial question — who will benefit from that growth?
Unfortunately, it’s all too easy to make the case that most Americans will be
left behind, because smart machines will end up devaluing the contribution of
workers, including highly skilled workers whose skills suddenly become
redundant.”
Krugman doesn’t close his
column with a solution. However, it would belittle Krugman—and his
profession—to assume that he merely set the stage for another populist
campaign to raise tariffs and impose higher taxes on capital expenditures.
(Economists will follow fads
when they’re operating largely in the dark. However, like hard scientists,
mountains of evidence and decades of experience limit the range of options
professional economists debate. And they know today that we won’t recreate
Middle Class affluence by putting higher taxes on tools or raising the prices
of consumer goods other people make.)
Let’s be clear, however. There are two indispensable worker activities that robots can’t perform. They can’t spend in the market place any of their contribution to the enterprise’s income or pay taxes to governments. Their lack of purchasing power and taxable incomes will cause grief in the public and private sectors.
Their shortcomings needn’t be
attacked with more government interference in the economy or in private management
decision-making, or by smashing the machines. Nevertheless, allowing the
economy to grow as fast as it can technically may require even more progressive
taxes on the few fortunate and enterprising millions who pocket the gains from
these extraordinary new technologies.
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