tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1050203029891830562024-03-13T05:36:45.862-04:00Horswill on political seamanshipLes Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.comBlogger728125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-52512916227746559342017-09-26T09:13:00.000-04:002017-09-26T09:13:35.588-04:00The ‘good son’ rides again<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To me, the most
maddening footage running through the early episodes of Ken Burn’s Vietnam
series is the story of the patriotic teenager Denton Winslow “Moogy” Crocker. With
his parent’s reluctant consent, he made it to the fight, and the day after his
19<sup>th</sup> birthday was killed on a hillside, years before his draft-call,
and well before his well-spoken mother and her leaders voiced their qualms
about the war. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Thank goodness
faith in western institutions today is not so terribly influential as it was after
America settled two world wars. Yet, amongst us still are waves of good sons
and daughters ready to take on causes their parents take seriously around those
dangerous family dining-room tables. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In Canada, it’s
much harder to get in trouble for being loyal. Still, the spirit of family
solidarity in our politics ought to get more attention. Certainly, its force belies
any tingle of nervousness excitement about this so-called transformative era
and is bigger than stale speculation about whether any politician these days
really believes in the formal religious teaching they adopted as children. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">An exceptional
public figure can survive the bitterness of switching parties and, today,
seeming indifference to the Crown and God is ignored. However, can you think of
a surviving politician who was found out to be a bad son? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Jagmeet Singh
Jimmy Dhaliwai, Andrew James Scheer, and Justin Pierre James Trudeau have more
common as sons than are divided by either ideology or religion. Indeed, as sons
go, they’re each at least as reliable as their predecessors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each displays gravitas not so much as
thinkers or partisans, but as sons who can be trusted. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Justin Trudeau is
pretty laissez faire about his policies and styles of dress. And, he’s especially
loquacious about his entire life--what he learned from his father about honor,
and needless to say, how patient he was with his mother. He may be the family’s
peacock, but isn’t a Trump-north narcissist. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The most exciting
thing about Andrew Scheer may be the ‘fire wall’ between his religious beliefs
and his politics, both inherited from his parents. The smoldering question is
whether he’s allowed himself enough space to grow into anything more than the eager
teenage son of a Catholic Deacon in Ottawa. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Putative New
Democrat leader, Jagmeet Singh is the most spectacular straight of them all. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">GQ magazine may
have made his exotic religious garb camp and harmless. Nevertheless, his
multi-colored collection of turbans, his Kirpan, and metal bracelet--and simply
surviving as a faithful Sikh in a high school in working-class Windsor, Ontario--all
together display not religious fervor, but foremost the universal qualities of
a loyal son.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">He might not
re-win Quebec or have the tactical genius to broaden the NDP vote against a
left-wing Liberal Prime Minister. Certainly, no New Democrat leader has yet.
However, the fear that a social democrat may have an alien Sikh-inspired hidden
agenda is implausible. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If you’re one of
those Canadian who vote according to what you believe will most appeal to
elites in other countries, you’ll stick with Justin Trudeau. However, if you’re
bored with pastel slogans like ‘diversity is our strength’ and want to show off
2017 Canadian values, Jagmeet Singh is the real thing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Strict atheists
and radical secularists may regret that he hasn’t given up his religion, even quietly,
like a typical Anglican. At the same time, however, they would have to admire
that he stuck with those who brought him to this place. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Despite their
family trees and long left resumes, the others can’t match him when it comes to
honoring those core values that are the deal-breakers in the land of the good
son.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-22217343555818049482017-07-27T08:32:00.000-04:002017-07-27T08:32:25.189-04:00Can Canada change--on purpose?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The 7th Republican President elected since a
Democrat President dropped two atomic bombs on Japan has not yet blown up our civilization--nor
as a petulant half-measure asked Congress to annex Canada the one country no
American pundit dislikes or worries about. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Yes, the world is in trouble and yes; we
are all over the map about how to fix it. Having merely survived six months
without Barack Obama we might stop being so pleased with ourselves; and our
leaders endless dithering over whether to be more influential on this measly
continent or concentrate on impressing other civilizations making history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For starters, we ought to be more negative
about our choices. What Leonard Cohen said about poetry, is equally true about public
policy: it’s not our supply of sentiments; it’s the limits that are imposed on
us that force us to be creative.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And as a Canadian/California poet who
crossed our borders figuratively and literally his entire career, he likely
wouldn’t have objected to applying his way working to Canada, as a trading
economy. Commerce made his first home Montreal a beautiful, pre-eminent power,
not its natural endowments. And as soon as Canada was free to make its own
decisions, Canadians have been arguing about trade policy. It’s our turn. Let’s
get on with it. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Part 1: Opioids past their due-date<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This essay may seem rather mean at first.
It ends up, however, on a positive note: suggesting that eliminating tariff and
non-tariff barriers <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">within</i> the giant regional
economies of the world could be today’s most productive task for free traders
and moderate nationalists. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, before dusting off a vision that’s
presently in the attic, let’s look again at four familiar tactical notions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">1. Whether the current President of the
United States is an unpredictable philistine is beside the point. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">His tweets won’t change anything tangible, let
alone Canada’s troubled relationship with the United States. The US is too old an
economy and too litigious a democracy for that. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Putting America’s interests first is what all
American Presidents are elected to do, and they are free to advance with
Canada, amiably or arbitrarily, pretty well whatever that means in Washington.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Furthermore, the closer the embattled
President and Congress get to next year’s mid-term elections the more US trade
negotiators will be pressed to demonstrate concretely, together, that they are
putting America First, crudely if necessary. ‘Going around’ the White House
buttonholing better listeners in Washington becomes a fool’s errand.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2. The chemistry (mutually insincere)
between our PM and the President has little to do with business confidence and the
investment climate (inferior) in Canada.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Getting the photographic and rhetorical
distance right may help re-elect Justin Trudeau. However, that won’t change the
fact that Canadian provinces are relatively less safe places to invest in than,
say, Ohio or California or even Utah, because provinces have relatively less
power to assert and protect themselves in Washington, the one capital with the
power to disruptive export and domestic industries in both countries. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The additional risks are high for the new
capital intensive, high-skill industries that we hope will diversify our
economy. They do not have significant cross-border supply chains like the auto
assemblers, with entrenched union and corporate lobbies and Congressional
representatives to protect them. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At considerable expense to us, Canadian
governments mitigate somewhat their lack of continental power with corporate
welfare. Nevertheless, subsidies and diplomacy together can’t erase today’s
border taxes: a buyer’s-market dollar, without a big government big enough to
bluff the biggest government on earth.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">3. Integrated continental business interests
far better protect us from protectionists in the US than threats of a ‘trade
war’ or Ottawa talking points that ‘stand up’ to the craziness in Washington. That
business integration, however, also puts paid to ideas that Canada has viable
strategic alternatives to the US economy or credible freedom to bite back. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ever since Canada won the right from Great
Britain to write its own foreign policy, its Canada-First PM’s have resolved to
make Canada freer by ‘diversifying’ its export markets. Nevertheless, generation
after generation, approximately 75% of our export sector jobs and our country’s
business cycle still revolve around the prosperity and continued openness of
the United States. (Germany and China also have impressive neighbors with
dreams just like the ones we have in Ottawa.)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Canadian Embassy in Washington is
distributing a humble little pamphlet that shows Americans how much the iconic American
hamburger presently includes ingredients from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and
Ontario, as well as from California and Arizona. This pamphlet should also be
sneaked into Canada-China conferences, where the password ‘strategic’ now has
the punch of a wicked three-martini, expense account lunch. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">4. ‘Trade interdependence’ isn’t the same
as peace through mutual deterrence: Canadian government retaliatory measures
can bother US big business, while US protectionism can throw tens of thousands
of Canadians out of high-value jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Like the Paris Accord on Climate Change,
the NAFTA was tricky and time-consuming to conclude but can only be dissed by
the US. The Trudeau government graciously agreed to “modernize” a relatively
young trade treaty, mostly because it had no choice.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulroneys-advice-to-trudeau-on-nafta-head-down-and-mouth-shut/article35332763/">Brian
Mulroney</a> may exhort that Canada is big enough and popular enough to play a
leadership role in worldwide alliances--and, if pressed, say “no” to extremely
unpopular American presidents. Really? California and France are as cocky and
as anti-Trump as we are. Yet, they aren’t dreaming about shopping around for a
new best friend and securing enough customers on enough continents to be free
those over-ripe, fly-over American shoppers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Part 2: Liberalizing world’s great regions,
including ours<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We can admit to ourselves that we are too
integrated to bluff our giant neighbor. Can we consider aloud that considerably
more integration would make us safer? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Little changes to NAFTA won’t make Canada
secure commercially, nor will resource sales to China. Alternatively,
protectionism would severely divide the country and as surely, reduce the pace
of Canadian private-sector innovation. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, there’s another strategic option: outflank
19<sup>th</sup> century nationalists and 20<sup>th</sup> century globalizers by
getting on with what the FTA didn’t create--not merely less taxes on trade with
the US, but a full-fledged Canada-US common market. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Such an agreement could make sense to Canadian
and American workers who enjoy little power in the global economy, but who’ve collaborated
and competed beneficially across the border for generations. Overwhelmingly,
those workers and businesses know when trade is ‘fair’ as well as ‘free’.
Re-constructing the common market that was taking shape before 1776 would
provide a mighty platform for enforceable, rule-based, free trade expansion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">While the status quo burns the midnight oil
tweaking NAFTA, I’d nominate for negotiation a European Union-style union: including
the free movement of workers and goods and services, external trade relations,
the dollar, and a common security parameter. We could then enjoy free travel
across the 49<sup>th</sup> parallel and equivalent treatment for Canadian and
American workers, students, visitors, and investors. Canadians would be on the
same team in confronting unfair trade practices, upholding today’s GATT rules
and, for instance, in designing effective measures to discipline GHG polluters
who trade within and with our new common market.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking
out over a new century, it wouldn’t be a bad start--certainly better than the
opening decades of the last--to let the continents of the globe digests the
gale of change we unleashed globally after the last world war. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The latest global alternative for Canada: a
free trade deal with China, a super-power without an independent labour
movement or workers’ party, would mostly translate into greater power for that
state’s business allies. Money doesn’t lead necessarily to power-sharing.
‘Inclusive economics’ take hold in inclusive democracies, not the other way
around. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Like the Spaniards and the Dutch in a
European Union dominated by a democratic Germany, Canadians have qualified
their sovereignty in North America before. However, they’re hardly likely to
agree to do so with the new China or, indeed, with the same old Russia or even
the UN of today. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, few complex social arrangements
are permanent and how one changes is largely unpredictable. An economic union with
the US, however, needn’t lead to Fortress America, a greater federation, or
fragmentation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Future generations
strengthen existing arrangements or, in disrepair, eventually decide to do
something dramatically different. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Such an economic union would be imperfect.
It would soon lead to calls to alter the NAFTA with Mexico and wouldn’t quell
debate about global trade relations, over-heated and rusty sub-regional
economies, and how the spoils of economic growth should be shared.
Nevertheless, it would have a sophisticated domestic market large enough to
keep driving innovation, and it would be sufficiently transparent to adapt with
the consent of the people.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I liked the idea of re-uniting our nascent
pre-revolutionary federation, without the Crown and slaves. You thought
otherwise, even when Barack Obama was President. Fine. But, please don’t look
at a common market as a slippery slope; a trap that would soon extinguishment Canada’s
identity and emerging reputation as the nicest place on earth. The dots often
don’t connect: the Charter of Rights without Quebec’s signature hasn’t lead to Quebec’s
separation or a Canadian republic, and NAFTA hasn’t diminished the capacity of
the federal government to represent us and ‘nation-build’. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>-----<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Is thinking regionally a retreat? Would
Canada be choosing to be less influential? Would Canada be inviting the United
States to stop being a champion of ‘globalization’? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Adam Smith and David Ricardo theorized about
an entire world economy much smaller than either Western Europe or the United
States, today. Furthermore, the dimensions of the market they imagined allowed
for the possibility of democratic politics--for liberals, social democrats,
conservatives and reactionaries to fight it out in free elections, for control
of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">effective</i> parliaments. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In this century, we don’t think of free
trade merely between the Christian monarchies of Europe and their 18<sup>th</sup>
century colonies. The question for our time is at what pace must ‘globalization’
proceed? And how many participants does our ‘free market’ have to include to be
dynamic and still, collectively, responsible for our material destiny? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Western mixed economies can’t place the
economic drivers and the body politic too far apart, certainly not in different
bowls, especially now, when all the players have the vote. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Having a few public levers as far from our sprawling
private economy as Washington and Ottawa has been far enough away to build
extraordinarily prosperous, relatively open communities for some 360 million
people--literally, a beacon for innovators and an affront to a less free world,
whether we’d like to hide or not. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, in the name of ‘globalization’,
moving any of the federal, democratically accountable levers (say: currency,
tariff, corporate taxes, immigration, and homeland security policies) literally
off-shore wouldn’t be the same as letting a few that are already shared
substantively with Washington leave Ottawa formally in a new Canada-US<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>arrangement. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sesquicentennial Canada has the competence
and liberal temperament to negotiate with a successful neighbor that also has
never been anything other than a democracy the common market and currency union
that a dozen prickly western European powers have in place--and are willing to
risk significant political capital to preserve. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Probably, today’s EU grew too big too fast,
including holus-bolus east European countries in far different social and economic
circumstances than its founding western European members. Bearing that in mind,
this proposal doesn’t propose building on NAFTA to create at the same time a full-fledge
economic union with Mexico. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nevertheless, the EU today--the world’s
largest economy--was only possible because some half a dozen western European
democracies of wildly uneven political clout were willing to breakdown barriers
they once thought were essential in protecting their individual national
identities. And, throughout the union’s history they have preferred to have
Germany inside, rather than outside their common market. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, of course, such an arrangement
would leave federal negotiators and the capital’s monetary and macro-economists
with that much less to do; leaving Ottawa less beguiling as a mecca for idealistic
young Canadians looking for traditional federal government ways to express
their Canadian identity. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The post-adolescent mission of making
Ottawa stronger because it was weaker than London and now is weaker than Washington
has enriched Ottawa conversation and dignified its endlessly trendy intrusions
into the affairs of Canada’s strong, creative local governments--and has left
Canada’s consumers and economic actors poorer in return. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Mulroney’s free trade agreement didn’t and
never could have taken future trade disputes and bilateral trade policy out of
the reach of national legislatures and opportunistic politicians. The FTA,
however, eliminated tariffs on over 90% of the goods that flow between our two
countries. And, for over 25 years, interfering lobbies have left the lion’s
share of its multi-billion dollar daily trade flows alone. The more we trade,
the more value traders secure in each other’s markets, the safer we’ll be from
demagogues that pop up in both our democracies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The best trade negotiators look forward
keenly to the day the negotiation is over, when the actual market takes over.
They don’t confuse careerist dithering with actual decisions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A “modernized” FTA will not make Canada the
equal of its super-power neighbor and what I’m suggesting won’t either. Indeed,
a manageable common market should give the United States as well as Canadians,
a more credible voice in the world. It would be a union of political un-equals
to create a common market--a place where hard-pressed consumers and talented
Canadian workers needn’t be unequal.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-5814533229102946412017-02-08T07:18:00.000-05:002017-02-09T16:45:56.547-05:00Trumpism and the burden of being called a ‘conservative’<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">When I was a kid,
I started writing letters to Progressive Conservatives packed with </span></span>“strategic
advice” about not losing elections to Liberals. Habits that stir you are hard
to break. And now, despite a career of neutral service to three governing
parties in Ontario, the itch is back—and I’m free to scratch it. I love
competitive politics and believe that fearing close elections is good for every
government. That usually requires Conservatives not being branded as weird
aliens.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(New Democrats
eventually got past the problem when their </span></span>“<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">democratic socialist</span></span>”<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> leaders
became </span></span>“social democrats.”)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Today, the
Conservative Party of Canada is singularly exposed. So here goes.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Less than halfway
to the next election, the party’s membership faces unsure electoral
opportunities and two dangerous questions. Will there be a leadership candidate
on the ballot in May who can define themselves and then beat Justin Trudeau
without being competent in French and, united, how do they cope with Donald
Trump’s toxic presidency next door? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Assuming currently
reported confidence that Canada is on </span></span>“the right track” falters, and an
appetite for change returns, is it plausible to explain new ideas and promise
to heal divisions almost entirely in English? Can a Conservative leader go on
the attack relying on simultaneous translation? In this age of personality
politics, will Quebecers stop judging the whole man or woman and settle for memorized
platitudes?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">But let’s move on
from a known known.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In designing an aggressive
Conservative alternative for the next election, let’s look at six ways of not being
branded Trumpets. As befits the subject, most are downers, with one promising
gamble at the end.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1. Denying Trump’s
shadow is useless. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The new President
is like a stray puppy, unpredictable, unattractive and irresistible. He’ll be
on the Conservative leader’s porch first thing the next morning. And even if he
or she doesn’t feed him, Liberals will be over before sunrise to keep him
frisky. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Insist that Trump
is not really a conservative—that he’s an </span></span>“independent,” a “populist,” a “fraud,” whatever. According to the meme of the moment, the very day the new leader
complains about Ottawa and its insatiable elites, he or she will be called out for
playing to a “Trump-lite” base.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">2. As important as
being new, avoid being a Canadian “Republican.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In Canada, fear of
populist US Republicans generates more votes than fear of immigrants, foreign
investors, global epidemics, and family dynasties. Loathing the right half of
America is polite shorthand for: Americans are sick and we’re not. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Sure, opposition
leaders can, and I would argue, should be able to promote ideas a slim majority
of Canadians might not yet like. But they can’t lean against a long-held
distaste for xenophobic US right-wingers that 80% of adult Canadians enjoy and
nourish.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">3. Being louder patriots
won’t impress.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Canada’s nationalism
is Liberal now. Weird historically, but done. Standing up for </span></span>“Canadian values</span>” is Justin Trudeau’s franchise.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">America’s “I’m mad
as hell” Presidency will grow hoarse and all those angry T-shirts will fade before
Canada’s next election. However, it is extremely unlikely Canadian voters will
look for or find reasons to stop disliking Donald Trump, his angry supporters, or his chauvinist style.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Our politics and
the Charter tolerate cynical imitation. There is, however, a well-earned pride
amongst old Tory partisans for preferring to lose honorably. Losing as populist
counterfeits to Justin Trudeau would be ugly. People would laugh. Eye contact
would be difficult, and without eye contact, amassing $millions more than the
competition won’t take a political campaign anywhere.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">4. Telling
Liberals to be aggressive trade negotiators is lame.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Don’t be too cocky
with those statistics about our “balanced” trade relationship or try alarming
individual US legislators, unions, and businesses with musings about a </span></span>“trade
war.” While Canada is the biggest customer for 35 US states, our economy is more
than twice as reliant on the export of goods and services than is the US (31.5%
of GDP compared to only 12.6%, in 2015). And for our biggest region, swing-vote
Ontario, that reliance is approaching 50%, overwhelming with its
southern neighbor.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The high-tariff
diplomacy of John A. Macdonald and Robert Borden isn’t available to us. It’s a
dangerously credible threat by Trump’s America, but would be a clownishly
obvious bluff for trade-reliant regional economies like ours. The answer to a
superpower bully isn’t tough talk.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">5. Sorry,
Trudeau’s sunny diplomacy isn’t naïve or lazy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A majority of Canadians
and their trusted advisor <i>The</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">New York
Times</i> are enthralled by Joe Biden’s instruction that Canada, with Trudeau, must
carry civilization’s torch through this dark night. Trudeau’s wink-wink southward
asides repeat endlessly: “I share the nausea, but must carry on quietly, for the
sake of our workers and their precious children.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We have the most
sociable Prime Minister in Canadian history, with a Cabinet that devours
briefing books and advice from Canada’s most glamorous white-collar business:
understanding and lobbying important Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">If commercial relations
really do get scary, Canadians will rally behind their constructive Liberal
government, the namesake of the party that has not “sold out</span></span>” to Washington or
harmed continental interests on Bay Street either.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In any case, no
matter how adaptable their tweeters, Conservative leaders can’t compete against
Liberals or New Democrats with 19th-century Tory insults about vulgar
US politics. If only because their voting base is still genuinely positive about
America and its future. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">6. Outflank Trumpism
and Trudeau with better ideas.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We know Trump’s
big-government nationalism won’t work here, and when economic nationalism
doesn’t work, it wastes resources and turns nasty. Also, Trump’s agenda in
Washington may be neutered by a blood bath in the White House. Nevertheless,
his election last November was evidence of trouble in his country and, likely,
in ours. He has torn the fabric of our shared post–Cold War order. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Simply doubling down
on trade diversification, multilateralism, and our unreformed Westminster
democracy would be an all-Canadian reply to Trump all right, but not to the
times. The Conservative Party would remain the status quo’s spare party, with
an anti-liberal name.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Conservatives are
as qualified as Liberals to see the times are changing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, before being taken seriously as
innovators, they should acknowledge how experience and changes in Canada have
changed them as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For conservatives, </span></span>“new” doesn’t go without saying.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>--------<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">For openers and as
a thought experiment—why not do something about that word </span></span>“conservative”? At
it’s best, it’s a noble, dull word, whether puffed up with hyphens or not. It’s
like a sad Victorian poem one reads, after others act.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Rebranding is both
a painful and profitable industry. While all organizations fear symbolic change
as much as the real stuff, they often profit handsomely when they do. And,
anyway, Conservatives are the least qualified in Canada to get huffy about
nomenclature. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">At the time of Confederation,
the word “Conservative” was sprung on Canadians as only the second half of the
“Liberal-Conservative Party.” And over half a dozen times since then, it has
been kept on and taken off the party’s name. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Conservative
virtues, of course, grace politics across the spectrum; otherwise, we would
have destroyed our civilization long ago. Yet, despite how beautifully the conservative
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">temperament</i> is dressed up in
Masterpiece dramas, today, </span></span>“conservative” as a political <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">label</i> has been appropriated by sheltered and wealthy US
right-wingers and unlovable organizations that are excited by leaps of faith
and the least-democratic clauses in their county’s liberal constitution.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Furthermore, the
all-powerful creative industries that educated and entertain Generation X and millennial voters has remorselessly linked the word </span></span>“conservative” with hot
buttons, such as: cold, intolerant, old-stock, complacent, sexist, unfeeling, and antiscience—useful when stuck in a snow bank, but boring. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The postcolonial British
Tory themes of deference toward state power—including a “sober” unelected
Senate and numerous unelected public agencies, as well as economic and cultural
protectionism, European networking and fear of US-inspired populism—are now
nestled in Ottawa at the heart of the Liberal Party of Canada. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As that shift
consolidated after Pierre Trudeau’s return to power in 1980, the traditional, grassroots
small-<i>l</i> liberal constituencies of small businesses, family farms, new
Canadians, and populist democrats shifted in sufficient numbers to secure
Stephen Harper’s three-term, </span></span>“<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">neo-liberal</span></span>” prime ministership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Ideologically, I’d
guess that a majority of Conservative activists, especially in the
growth centers west of the city of Kingston to the Pacific Ocean, are already Canadian-style
libertarians. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">These activists are community-minded and
cooperative, not the supposed rugged individualists who, after intense
parenting, survive outdoors in southern California. They’re convinced, however,
that our personal and economic freedoms are under greater threat than central government
and artificial borders, that planners are taken too seriously and markets unwisely
less so. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">They champion
public measures to expand workplace training and reduce changing employment
barriers, believing that open economies must remain open to benefit all individuals
and working families. They see greater leisure time as an economic dividend,
not as a euphemism for giving up and parking people who are not earning a
living wage. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Presumably,
they’ve come to see that public </span></span>“entitlements” (legislatively defined transfers, including
universal health and unemployment insurance in every province and tax credits
and equalization payments) provide more reliable social support than charities
and photogenic guilt-trips.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, as
important, they appreciate that “entitlements” leave people comparatively free,
while leaving bureaucracies profoundly less free to treat people arbitrarily or
bribe and bully businesses, civil society, and other elected levels of government.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">While it’s safe to
say they’re not out to create that mythic Anglo-sphere alliance, they do believe
that genuine democracies around the world rely on the United States' commitment
and strength. And they can actually name aloud ones, like Israel, Taiwan, along
with Japan and South Korea. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Feeling comfortable
using the words </span></span>“libertarian” or “classical liberal,” for that matter, is more important
than rushing to formally change the name of the Conservative Party.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“Canadian</span></span></span>” <span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">and </span></span>“democratic” are attractive adjectives. However, they should think twice before
bothering to go back to qualifying the word “conservative”—<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: normal;">a noun opinion-makers and educators more powerful than the Canadian Conservative Party have either appropriated or debased</span>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">With luck, however,
once they resolve to free themselves of that noun </span></span>“conservative,” they’ll be
able to more firmly embrace and promote the truly expansive possibilities of
more stable economic and social relations between our two liberal democracies
and their common global interests, whatever the fate of the Trump presidency. </span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-88495298919068582072017-01-05T09:38:00.000-05:002017-01-09T08:50:11.865-05:00Canada’s interests in US elections? Please.<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s a dry twig
to add to the bonfire of sorrows over last year’s presidential election. For a
sitting president, securing votes in primaries and general elections beats any business
and political relationship, even with Canada. </span></span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: Raleway-Regular, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Even a good president’s feelings don’t count for much</i></span></span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: Raleway-Regular, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> should be
stamped at the top of every fat memo about Canada’s geopolitical options. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Barack Obama
completed his historic presidency thinking as a Democratic politician: about <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">his</i> party’s interests, its allies, and
its vanities about what’s best. The sweaty old pols were wrong. He didn’t
overthink. He calculated and acted as a partisan president. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Being liberal-minded
as well, Canadians decided eight years ago that Obama would be serving our
interests when serving the </span></span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: Raleway-Regular, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">better angels</span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0a0a0a; font-family: Raleway-Regular, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> of America. If nothing happened,
we’d accept that it wasn’t important or that our prime minister was on the
wrong side ideologically—that, for instance, having a liberal across the table
from another liberal would work wonders. It was gauche to raise structural
issues:</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">the asymmetry of economic and political
power, the Democratic Party’s protectionist base, and the pesky fact that
two-term presidents, like two-term prime ministers, usually become a touch arbitrary,
and slightly bewitched by their power.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Canadians think
about America’s future every day. And we hoped Obama would think sympathetically
about us now and then. However, being a partisan in 2016, Obama spent his
political capital strictly shoring up support for his party and his own presidency
with US voters. Period. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Obama stopped promoting
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">his</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">own</i> TPP trade deal with its enhanced trade terms for Canada and
allies in Asia, and freed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">his</i>
candidate Hillary Clinton to campaign against it. He worked and dined with our
new liberal Prime Minister several times through the year, without giving
Canada any ground on softwood lumber quotas, or “Buy America” procurement
practices, or even a down payment for the US half of the Gordie Howe
International Bridge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, possibly
of greater longer-term consequence, Obama never clearly championed the case for
a common North American tax on carbon, a declaration that would have strengthened
the credibility of Obama’s Paris agreement on Climate Change in Canada.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We can’t blame
nasty 2016 for any of it. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It was hardly a
bad year for Obama personally, or for America’s economy, or for the election prospects
of his party, right through the first 10 happy months of the year. He didn’t
trim his support for free trade or neglect Canada-US relations for a greater
good: say, for instance, stopping a phony socialist or fascistic, vulgar
amateur from winning the White House. His candidate Hillary Clinton was winning big,
right up to their last joint campaign rally. Furthermore, until midsummer it
was assumed that the Republicans would barely get their act together and would
lose with a run-of-the-mill mainstream free trader or unelectable boor. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Yet again, Obama
played US electoral politics to the hilt, without regard to friends in the
bleachers.</span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-58000347526363029952016-12-15T09:11:00.000-05:002017-01-09T08:55:32.706-05:00Vladimir Putin, John Podesta, Rex Tillerson, and another Birther Movement?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s entirely
possible that Donald Trump voters still don’t appreciate that he’s unfit to
protect Eastern Ukraine, let alone is adult about the existential significance
of America’s nuclear deterrent. Does he yet know that </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Trump</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> no longer stands
for luxurious escape? Are any of us sure he’s not beholding to
Vladimir Putin and, therefore, too conflicted to be allowed to be President?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Can this sickening
state of not knowing be intolerable, constitutionally? Clinton Campaign Manager,
sad-eyed <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/12/13922454/hillary-clinton-electors-podesta">John
Podesta</a>, seems to think so, petitioning the Electoral College to receive an
intelligence briefing on Russia’s dirty tricks before they ratify Trump’s
electoral victory.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We do know one
thing: Liberals are at their best unpacking to stay rather than packing up to leave
centers of power. Up here in Canada, Justin Trudeau is successfully stretching out
the thrill of Ottawa house-hunting and a family restoration in the last safe
capital of liberal moral leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">American liberals
aren’t haters. They only deplore the bad things others do and, obviously, deplore losing elections.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-tab-count: 5;"> ------</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Getting in the way
of a president-elect immediately after his election has a bipartisan history in
this busy century—specifically: contested George Bush ballots in Florida and
the persistent wish that Barack Obama wasn’t born in America. The legality of
those elections, not the ignorance of the voters, was challenged. Resistance
offered amateur partisans emotional release, but didn’t hasten their party’s
return to power.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Indeed, it’s
entirely plausible that Obama’s early, teasing silence on his birth certificate
helped the </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Birther Movement</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">” </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">capture wide public attention and, in part, foul
the brand of the presidential Republican Party.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> ------- </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Donald Trump has
neither the exquisite WASP reserve of Barack Obama nor his political savvy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I can’t resist the thought that he’s
putting the Democrat’s leadership in an increasingly awkward position on his
bromance with Vladimir Putin.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Throughout the
election, Trump purred that it would be “nice” to get along with Russia and its
government. He won.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And now he’s doubled
down with provocative indifference by nominating Rex Tillerson, the CEO of
ExxonMobil, as his Secretary of State. Tillerson actually has a multibillion-dollar relationship with Putin and runs possibly the most globally invested
business in the global economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To economic
nationalists dedicated publicly to the notion that global capitalism is out of
control, Tillerson is a dangerous, unavoidable target. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As was that “black
Kenyan” for Republicans, Rex Tillerson’s resume will raise money amongst core
Democrats. Will ambitious Democrats, however, be able to keep their distance
from the kind of vulgar taunts that disappointed Barack Obama—right through to
his successful re-election in 2012?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-90488734971850641382016-11-19T11:10:00.000-05:002016-11-19T11:10:04.102-05:00Being ‘not normal’ after the election of Donald Trump<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I know this is no
time to complain about the blahs. Life on the planet altered last week. People
are disoriented; nauseated with fear; or in a rage. Meanwhile, I just want to
be left alone to clean up the kitchen. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My social and, indeed,
my domestic life demand that before uttering his name I repeat: “I detest Trump,
his court of bigots, and all the low-lifers that poison US politics.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of it I’ve said, sincerely, before
offering harmless, even old-hat comments about reports on post-election mental
activity. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But, surely I
don’t have to keep sounding-off like a hairy old radical from the Sixties before
speaking freely in this mellow country. After all, what would be the point of
Canada without its signature mellow ways? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My fellow
Canadians insist on remaining separate from the US because they prefer our less
important, calmer politics. After he first visited Ottawa nearly 8-years ago,
they weren’t thrilled, as I was, by the idea of actually voting to re-elect Barack
Obama. But let’s not dig up that old bone! Sarcasm is a dead weapon in the age
of Twitter. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Until I watch the
Senate hearings on his Cabinet nominees and hear old Red’s Inaugural Address in
January, I will admit to only one common pain with you: Barack Obama was an
abnormally careful and trustworthy president. But, there was never going to be
a third act. So, we’re all being hurled forward into an old world: a dangerous
time, without a great American in the White House.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-30508932914150328032016-11-02T10:15:00.000-04:002016-11-02T16:50:11.300-04:00Do we need to be big to be cosmopolitan political animals?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The just society
has been restored. Best intentions, disciplined by fact-checkers, motivate our
institutions. When we’re not on Netflix or vicariously fighting US elections, Canadians
ponder Canada’s singular original flaw: being good, but too small. Canadians
simply can’t shake the feeling that Canada could do so much more to save this
troubled word if only it was bigger. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Happily, this problem has a
gently impactful, re-calibrated century-old solution: a population target of
100 million bona-fide Canadians by 2100. Its champions most surely already own
real estate in downtown Toronto and Vancouver, studied and vacation in Europe,
and can’t stand America’s cussed indifference.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">After putting up with more
than a century of being less appealing to global risk-takers and mistreated minorities
than the great happiness lady to the south, we’re now a first love, not a
rebound destination. So, that old itch to be great too has found credible
voices in our national politics.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Andrew Coyne gives the idea a cleared-eyed
pass in his excellent column: </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/andrew-coyne-increased-immigration-is-good-for-canada-and-the-reasons-arent-only-economic"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">“Increased
immigration is good for Canada — and the reasons aren’t only economic”</b></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US">.</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The target isn’t a leap of
faith and wouldn’t require that much of an additional increase in annual immigration
annually. We can micro-manage (high-grade) the admission of individuals keen to
embrace Canada’s governing values. Coyne doesn’t try to argue that immigration
will solve the emerging burden of grey dependents or increase real incomes
per-capita by magically increasing our productivity. He settles on a classic
liberal assertion, and a Machiavellian one:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“Ambitious countries want to grow, but growth also makes countries
ambitious.”<o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“Second, it (population target) would add to our clout in the world. We
would be growing at a time when our peers are shrinking. At 100 million,
current United Nations projections suggest we would be second only to the
United States (it is forecast to grow to 450 million) among the G-7, vaulting
past Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.”</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Since half of new Canadians
settle now and will continue to settle in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and a
fourth city, depending on shifting regional job prospects, Coyne is a hundred
percent, half right: by 2100 Montreal and Vancouver will have joined Toronto as
eminent, brutally ambitious centers of western creativity, commerce and
civilization.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Having the talent and problems
as big as New York’s and Los Angeles’s, it is reasonable to expect that Toronto
will discover in its midst truly exceptional, cosmopolitan political leaders.
Visitors will study how we run things as a giant city and we’ll be more
entertaining than the Fins and Norwegians. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, Canada as a
nation-state and the public service in its national capital Ottawa won’t have
more “clout in the world.” To put it personally, your choices of future prime
ministers won’t give you added or less voice as an unregistered ‘citizen of the
world’, let alone North America.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is not a good thing or,
happily, the way it must always be.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As a child of the Sixties, I still
believe “clout in the world” is a constructive, indeed a healthy ambition--others
out there will not stop seeking to have it and, often, in order to do less
good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, Machiavelli would only
be amused at the thought that the nicest suburb on this continent wants to be a
significant political force on its own. Indeed, as an Italian cosmopolitan--who’d
see instantly that secret ballots in primaries, caucuses and general elections have
the real power--he might ask: why do you follow US political gossip,
passionately day-after-day, and reject any form of political participation? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-33737621259832977322016-10-17T09:13:00.000-04:002016-10-20T13:38:10.750-04:00Is Justin Trudeau’s ‘carbon price’ too good to oppose?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Some short
speeches are worth taking nearly a year to write. Justin Trudeau’s </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">you price carbon or I will</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><b style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">declaration to
the provinces may be one of them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">It respects the
ancient rules of Liberal incumbency: it honors international commitments, has
the sympathy of most go-to policy analysts, won’t touch the middle-class, ever
so gently, for years. Best of all, it has a black-hat cast of detractors,
right-wing deniers, left-wing dreamers, and even a prim prairie premier leading
the charge.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Its weaknesses are
also its strength. There will be two years for bureaucratic brainstorming with
the three biggest Liberal provincial governments before Trudeau must decide
whether to bring down the hammer, starting with a puny nationwide $10-per-ton tax on carbon. And, as a largely incomprehensible war cry, a “carbon price</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> can
be defended as one of those </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">good whatevers</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> smart people like and paranoids
oppose. Being a euphemism for another consumption tax only makes it that much
smarter.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">With all this
easily grasped by every opposition wordsmith with a security pass on Parliament
Hill, why then are New Democrats and Tories (with the exception of that
high-minded lone-wolf Michael Chong) not going along? Are they being too
partisan too pass that life-or-death, good-citizen-of-the-world, common-sense
test that is demanded by swing voters from coast to coast?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Duh. No. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In Canada, you
can’t be dumb in public about a global threat as serious as climate change.
But, you can, in fact, sound smart parting company with Justin Trudeau’s bold
plan, and the qualified support of <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-canada-a-small-part-of-global-emissions-problem-but-costs-of-inaction-are-not-zero">Andrew
Coyne</a>, for that matter, and be likeable by openly not liking Trudeau’s
carbon tax plan. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">First. Federal New
Democrats are not honor-bound to keep up with the Liberals when they bully provinces
and appropriate elements of a conservative market mechanism to fight a global
problem. Furthermore, in opposition, they’d be crazy to support any tax increase
that has to hit workers and families in energy-intensive ridings the hardest.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The left, of
course, is free to outbid the Liberals with promises to raise taxes on those
two exotic minorities: big business polluters and the rich.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, they haven’t before and needn’t now
help the Liberal Party’s indecently popular leader raise taxes on voting blocks
that social democrats have solicited for generations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Trudeau, on the
face of it, has designed and intends to actually implement a carbon mitigation
plan well to the right of Stephen Harper, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton.
New Democrats are free to leave him out there.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Second. Conservatives
can survive being called hypocrites by Liberals. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Yes, Trudeau’s carbon “price” is less harsh and isn’t the federal government-money grab that was proposed by Stephen Dion. His “Green Shift" was soundly rejected in the 2008 election and Liberals learn from their mistakes. </span>Nevertheless, Trudeau’s less
rambunctious carbon tax plan will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i>
be an alternative to inferior regulatory alternatives, but another add-on. His Minister of Environment and Climate Change Catherine McKenna has repeatedly
assured lobbyists and provinces that they can keep bulking up subsidy and
regulatory interventions.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Trudeau declared
with great care that his carbon tax plan is “revenue neutral to the federal
government.” Provincial governments will get every cent raised from their
business and individuals. Nevertheless, its essential rationale and its
inescapable impact on carbon consumers can’t be “neutral.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The only way to
leave energy-intensive users whole would be to provide matching rebates against
each consumer’s carbon tax bill. But leaving them whole would contradict the
whole point of Trudeau’s tax.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Ontario Premier Wynne’s
pre-election electricity rate rebate to hard-pressed electricity customers offers
a real time example of trying anyway.) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">It needn’t be
supported today by scientifically literate and ambitious New Democrats or
Conservatives. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Trudeau government reply, of course, is that New Democrats are first to insist that Canada honor multilateral agreements and should, therefore, be first to back a carbon “price” plan that is sincerely designed to meet the climate change targets agreed to at the UN conference of all nations in Paris. The Trudeau government would also reply</span> that the Tories have no right to complain because
(1) they don’t care about climate change and (2) are not licensed to care about
people. Sadly, both parties are too petty (as I am now) to hold hands and help
Canada be seen to do its part to save the planet. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">At the very least,
the opposition—loyal, cynical, or otherwise—shouldn’t offer support, in
advance, to the dark and sunny sides of a comprehensive carbon tax without (in
concert with the provinces) full disclosure on how it would be applied. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In the meantime,
let’s bear down on what the world truly needs: affordable technology
alternatives to fossil power and a declaration by the next US president that
she’ll propose and champion a substantive carbon tax or an alternative,
verifiable form of American sacrifice worth Canadian sacrifice as well.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-10908912199844793712016-10-13T08:21:00.000-04:002016-10-19T14:25:20.198-04:00 Want your Senate to answer to you or be ‘independent’?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Canadians are sensitive
to the corruptive power of hot patriotic rhetoric in American politics. We’re
unmoved by flag-waving braggarts. Instead, we’re soft on a sedative: the
proposition that our decision-makers serve us best, ever more intelligently,
when we’re not in their face. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">An extra measure
of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">independence</i> for legislators and
public executives is presented to us as time-tested good housekeeping—a virtue
that sets Canada above the more tactile and demanding politics to the south. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Americans
inherited the slave industry and we embedded in our political culture a British
constitution of limited democracy and the good citizen’s general willingness to
go along.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Yet, any morning,
in every public institution, from the PMO down to every crown agency and
regional government outpost, those who hold power are reminded in little, unpleasant
ways that they hold that power at our pleasure. Their unease about their
professional mortality is palliated directly by obsessive market surveys, focus
groups, and waves of fetching press gallery spinners, bureaucratic neologisms,
and incomprehensible ‘accountability’ data dumps. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Also, there’s the
confusing verbiage of our constitutional monarchy—a magical system of
government that hides in every legal statute who exactly is the boss. On the
outside, popular public intellectuals also write papers shoring up the credibility
of independent decision-making and the impossibility of improving on the democratic reforms secured in the 1980s.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://medium.com/@PPForum/a-house-undivided-making-senate-independence-work-b773ad28b786#.a6ol38xhb"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A House Undivided: Making Senate
Independence Work</i></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"> </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">by</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US">
former Senators Michael Kirby and Hugh Segal is a classic, bringing nuts-and-bolts authenticity to the task of trying to organize Justin Trudeau’s new
Senate of 105 un-elected, free-thinkers into a workable legislative assembly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">There will be, they proposed to the
Public Policy Form, weekly Senate caucuses of the four regional power blocks
that formed British North America back in 1867. To give Justin Trudeau
greater latitude in guessing who would best represent these regions, the age
limit of 30 and the property minimum of $4,000 for Senate appointments will be
eliminated. Necessarily, the PM’s freshman Senate existentialists will need to meet
regularly “in conference” to sort out their differences with the less sober, rather
harried elected politicians from the people’s House of Commons. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(The Senate’s own reform committee
outdid Kirby and Segal by recommending that the Senate allow their debates to
be televised. Idle masochistic Canadians surely can’t be satisfied watching </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">only </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">unaccountable US Senators indifferent in what they think.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Some sandboxes should be for the children
or sent to the museum of civilization.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Trying to make a Canadian
law-making institution less offensive by reforming its appointment procedures
and business practices is, at best, a sincere waste of time. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Placing our upper house beyond electoral
redress by the people has not, as Victorian authoritarians told us, led to more
“sober second-thought.” The Senate is illegitimate today because, time and again,
we’ve seen that informed adults voting are superior guarantors of durable
progress than organizations of aloof worthies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Yes, too much democracy—via
plebiscites, recall of legislators, and too frequent elections—could drive us
into a ditch. And with that concern very much in mind, the US constitution
evolved a democratic balance: elections every two years for the </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">people’s
assembly</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> and every six years for its Senate. They accepted that scrambling for
money and voter approval shouldn’t go on constantly. They didn’t go so far,
however, as to eliminate elections for the US Senate altogether.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Michael Kirby and Hugh Segal were
superior Canadian senators. And they are listened to in Ottawa today. Lyndon
Johnson, Ted Kennedy, Robert Taft, and Evert Dirksen, however, made political history,
and did so, in large part, because they could win big elections and scare presidents.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Either Hillary Clinton or Donald
Trump will be elected shortly; and neither will be subdued by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Guardian</i> or <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Globe</i> or the UN. To govern, however, the winner must regularly
secure majorities and super-majorities in a separately elected US Senate.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Will Justin Trudeau’s government
ever be subdued or driven off course by the Senators Justin Trudeau appoints
to the Senate? Against that test, our $90-million-plus Senate is more
bling-bling than a check on the awesome power of the PMO.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Democracy’s catch-22: for an
effective Senate to be </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">independent</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> of the PM of the day, its Senators must first
be empowered by being elected and, along with the PM, obliged to answer
regularly to the people.</span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-84823805625472174782016-09-16T08:34:00.000-04:002016-09-19T09:42:20.020-04:00Quit! You’ll only lose your brand.<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Every successful
candidate—as well as most losing ones—for President of the United States attract </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">public
intellectuals.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> They offer their services as storytellers, media whisperers,
and strategic thinkers. They make a difference; they help launch and sustain good
and unforgettably terrible ideas as well. And they are rewarded richly in the
best sense of the word: their exceptional brains work most brilliantly around
power. They must, however, swim in one of two immense pools: the Republican and
Democratic parties. The action is not on the beach with the independents.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The entry fee into these ponds has lightened; old-boy passports aren’t as valuable as
they once were. Presidential politics today is an extremely competitive marketplace,
with demanding investors who thrive in the vicious new meritocracy. So, merit
should get you in. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Exiting is not as
easy: it can cost you your name, career, and friendships. It raises a character
question: Can you be trusted on any team?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span>Loyalty</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> is not
just a harmless pat on the back for dutiful service. The word imposes a sin tax
on exit: being known as </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">disloyal.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> Being loyal doesn’t get you a promotion or
keep the business </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">innovative or </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">on its toes. It simply allows the institution to
not worry about potential quitters 24–7. (Insights on the power of loyalty goes to Albert O. Hirschman's "Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and States")</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The above
considerations partly explain why David Brooks in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/opinion/time-for-a-realignment.html">Time
for a Realignment</a> and avowedly partisan thinkers write passionately about
the dislocation and movement of millions of voters, while largely sitting still
themselves. Their squirming has generated entertaining and clever discussion—and
we should appreciate that. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/with-trump-the-united-states-would-be-a-weaker-power/article29959459/">Joseph
Nye</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">, </span></span>the liberal who coined the strategic
panacea </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">soft power</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> hilariously excoriates Republican Donald Trump for being
soft on Vladimir Putin and squeamish about committing US forces to any war to
defend Lithuania. Conservative </span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-visits-the-republican-national-convention-1.3684268/david-frum-s-republican-soul-is-having-a-very-dark-night-1.3691044" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">David
Frum</a><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> speaks soulfully about his dark night in the Republican Party. He chooses
forthrightly to campaign against Donald Trump as a loyalist’s first step to
unite conservative Republicans, later.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Their loyalty
shouldn’t be overvalued. There’s another equally effective way to be intellectually
and politically useful: quit.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Too little attention
is paid to the virtue of picking up and leaving. America is great if only because America and it’s more timid
northern cousin are populated by switchers and quitters, not only by those who
keep their heads down, wait for bad times to pass, or hope that their bosses
will wake up one day and stop treating them as soreheads and has-beens. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Think of those
illustrious troublemakers insiders loathed at the time: Theodore Roosevelt and
his Progressive Party, René Lévesque and the Party Quebecois, and Preston
Manning and Reform Party.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Singing the
praises of the two-party system is an establishmentarian excuse for not rocking
the boat amongst the brains at the top as well as amongst the <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span>white trash</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> below decks. Throughout the modern communication age, the oldest parties have
set the rules and acquired for themselves tremendous advantages to ward off
revolts and new competition.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The privileged, of
course, have done all this to make politics less corrupt and politicking more
like a profession.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Yet, there’s no
compelling evidence that breaking down the quasi-monopolistic advantages for
Democrats and Republicans and Liberal and Conservative parties would lead to
the chaotic fragmentation of our popular democracies. Insurgencies are
eventually absorbed by both adaptive competitors and by an enduring preference
by voters to give one party, not coalitions, decisive power to govern.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Malcontents serve
new ideas within established parties. However, they only rouse themselves when there’s
reasonable prospect that neglected constituencies will exercise their freedom
to move on. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">More </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">public intellectuals</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> should try it—light the way, so to speak. Real change needs them.</span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-24209034994151489882016-08-05T06:34:00.000-04:002016-09-15T09:21:09.523-04:00Is the US ballot question getting too heavy?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The logic behind
Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech, President Obama’s ex-cathedra observations,
and a wave of conscience-stricken conservatives all claiming that Donald Trump
is “unfit” for high office is too depressing to voice on mainstream television.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So hide the
children: this year’s presidential election is too dangerous to be close.
Indeed, the democracy-wary founding fathers may have been right: today, with
all its awesome power and global obligations, maybe America shouldn’t be using the
popular ballot to select its party candidates and elect its Commander in Chief.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Khan family took
the high ground and played it safe, simply questioning Trump’s knowledge of the
US Constitution. The Clinton campaign, however, has gone much further,
declaring that Trump is irredeemably, “temperamentally” unfit; that by his
tweets alone, it’s evident that if we gave him the power he might blow us up. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The crazy guy is
saying it would be nice to get along with Putin; the sane lady is claiming that
she can save Estonia and, as well, has the right fingers to rest near the Red
Button. Republican leaders in positions of trust are being told to put America
First and ease the way for another Clinton Presidency. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As a small Canadian
talker, not a fighter, I’m temperamentally unfit to cheer for a bully. And
Trump baldly presents himself as that. Likewise, however, I suspect that
Americans don’t welcome<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">—</span><!--EndFragment--> months before the big day, before even a
candidates debate has been held<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 13px;">—</span> instructed that ‘civilization as we know
it’ will be on the ballot this November. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The election probably
will stay unpredictable for weeks to come because in the land of the free there
are millions of independent voters who don’t like to be hurried.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">You have to trust
insiders to trust what they tell you: what they <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">think</i> is cooking deep inside the heads of the two leading candidates.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In a popular
incumbent’s year, the insiders can scare you silly. Think of Mitt Romney.
Before he challenged President Barack Obama, he was widely recognized as the
progressive, Republican policy-wonk that authored Obamacare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By Election Day 2010, he was a tin man who’d
like to disenfranchise the poorer 47percent of Americans. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Or more to the point,
remember liberal Senator Ted Kennedy’s pal, conservative Senator Barry
Goldwater? Goldwater was trounced in a landslide by Lyndon Johnson’s anti-nuke
campaign in 1964, just month’s before LBJ’s massive escalation of American
military participation in Vietnam’s civil war.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Events can be hard
on voter expectations. Close elections, however, haven’t yet put America’s
direct democracy in fatal disrepute.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-12628236287148024162016-07-21T10:44:00.000-04:002016-07-21T15:32:22.579-04:00Conservative Party in WASP retreat?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Under cover of his
own mediocrity, Peter Mackay remains free to ponder whether once again to be an </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A-team candidate</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada, or to
remain a passionate family man. Who would disrupt his musings by questioning
his sparse declarations? Such as: “We mustn’t live in an echo-chamber</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> and his
“We must be more inclusive”? With over 10 years of high-profile success of similar vacuities, he knows he can keep pondering for months. The Mackay family
chalice of high expectations is still filled to the brim.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, without an </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A-team
candidate</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">” </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">like Mackay to overheat our thinking or an identifiable Republican
Party ideology left to contaminate Canadian discussion, let’s look at what the declared
aspirants and others are already contributing to the renewal of the Conservative
opposition in Canada. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Excepting the
gregarious Maxime Bernier, a Quebecois with a libertarian rather than a red-Tory
touch, the other Harper Government candidates are struggling to connect empathetically
to all those Conservatives who didn’t go to Trinity College, join the Albany Club
in their 20s, or read Disraeli before they read Lincoln and the <i>National
Review</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The popular meme
of the moment is: inclusiveness. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Inclusiveness</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">” </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">is
a bloodless reference to a life-or-death fact. In order to rattle and then beat
any majority government, its opposition must grow large enough to win the next
election. The word </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">inclusiveness</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> should die of boredom. But the Tories still
need a lot more of that growth stuff.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nevertheless, what’s
creeping back into conservative politics in Stephen Harper’s wake may not be
the </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">inclusive</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> parties of Diefenbaker and the Preston Mannings, but the ethnically
distinct party of that honorable gentleman Arthur Meighen, with its hamlets of self-regarding
Anglophiles scattered across the old Dominion of Canada.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Harper
conservatives paid their respects symbolically to the British connection while
pursuing a dogged, American-inspired neo-liberal agenda. They took risks to
secure a closer partnership with the whole EU, not its second-largest member. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They marketed
polar democracy and laissez-faire American
materialism, not the superiority of the Westminster model, to win over a decent
share of first-generation new Canadians. Also, they declared that the Quebecois
are a “nation within an independent Canada,” finally closing a gulf between Conservatives
and Quebec dating back over 100 years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Harper was most
certainly the most American Conservative Prime Minister in history. While he
got little in return from Barack Obama, his relative lack of interest in the
United Kingdom further moved the Conservative Party away from its rather
unlovable ethnic base.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In that context,
the nostalgic outbursts of support for Brexit by the former Conservative Speaker
of the House of Commons and potential </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A-Team</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> leadership candidate </span><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-scheer-a-strong-britain-is-an-independent-britain" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Andrew
Scheer</a>—<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">as well as Harper’s articulate former minister of Finance </span><a href="http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/joe-oliver-how-eu-bureaucrats-tried-hurting-canada-and-why-the-brexiteers-have-a-point" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Joe
Oliver</a>—<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">are bone-headed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Both op-ed pieces in
the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">National Post</i> could have been
written by the London pamphleteers in the “Rule Britannia” campaign against the </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“c</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">entralizing, bloated, unaccountable</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> machinery of the their democratic partners
in the EU. They argue the UK can again enjoy the same “sovereign” hygienic distance
from its neighbors that their forefathers legislated for Canada nearly 150
years ago.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nostalgic Tories
in Canada and in the UK dream that their countries can flourish as eminent Commonwealth
powers by trading, but not become politically entangled in the supposedly unreliable, inferior, and giant federations next door. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Advocates of the
American version of 19th-century nationalism are called </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">isolationists.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> Their counterparts in Canada were known—and, if they keep it up, will be seen again—as the Crown loyalists. You, of course, remember the stereotype: fervent
British Subjects who were raised to fear Catholics and Germans, and despise
Jews, Muslims, Eastern Europeans, the French, and the Italians.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They were the good
people who fought the currents of liberal history for two centuries. Unfortunately,
whether called </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">isolationists</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">” </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">or </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">loyalists,</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> they’re recognized by others—those
millions of voters who came here from republics not enthralled by the glories
of Great Britain—for their awkward, superior ways and their lack of respect
for how others do politics.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They still club,
but they don’t govern.</span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-89587000615376844452016-07-13T10:17:00.000-04:002016-07-18T08:25:01.045-04:00Justin Trudeau’s emotionalism<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">At the Auschwitz
Museum last week, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-poland-1.3672380">Justin Trudeau</a>
wrote the following in the book of remembrance: </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Tolerance is never
sufficient. Humanity must learn to love our differences.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">While the CBC reported
that his visit to the evil center of the Holocaust operation was private, I assume
his words were intended to contribute to our thinking about how to be more civilized.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">They convey the
same intimate, awkward portentousness of Neil Armstrong’s utterances when he
stepped onto the moon. And that’s appropriate: the Holocaust continues to
force us to think harder than any of the relics of the space race. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Trudeau’s gravitas
isn’t my problem.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Now that I’ve had that
recommended </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">consultation muffin,</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> my sugar count is as high as <i>GQ</i>’s regard for
the virtues of our new prime minister. Still, while my timing is way ahead of
the zeitgeist, I’d like to throw out a few teensy misgivings about what he
wrote so carefully.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Justin Trudeau’s
proposition that tolerance needs to be bolstered by “love for our differences” is
just not smart. And the task of being smarter about humanity, to my mind, is
the imperative of remembrance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Canadians quite
openly believe that they are more tolerant than, well, all their neighbors. But we also agree that tolerance is not enough when thinking about the safety of minorities. So, yes, his first sentence can be endorsed by all of us.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, long
ago, certainly in the West, we accepted that “love” is not reliable; it</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">s not what
drives powerful institutions, and it</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">s not the business of politics.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“Love” is hard to
find, but cheap in public discourse. Remember, bishops instructed the faithful
to love the heretics; they were burning on stakes in public squares. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“Black lives
matter!” isn’t looking for love, but justice—equal treatment that can be seen,
measured, and rigorously enforced in courts. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We can celebrate—and
advertise—our diversity in Canada because minorities are safe here. They are
safe because tolerance, consistent with universal liberal values, has been
codified into our laws and enshrined in our Constitution.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">It’s ironic that
Justin Trudeau, proud spokesman for Charter Canadian liberalism, would invoke a
sentiment to secure social justice. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">His family and
party get to brag about our enshrined Charter of Rights because Pierre Trudeau,
and his indispensable conservative allies, rejected tradition and sentiment as
adequate guarantors of minority rights in Canada. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Their opponents
didn’t claim to be defending a less liberal society. They claimed that British Common
Law and our liberal-minded self-regard, our love of our differences, was
enough.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">They lost the
argument.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-13280419236931156192016-07-07T08:38:00.000-04:002016-07-18T08:25:45.019-04:00Brexit villains: old ideas and bad men<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Historians and long-view
intellectuals teach us about our giants. And audiences in the tens of thousands
listen to them. This year has already produced villainous buffoons of historic
proportions, on both sides of the Atlantic. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/05/opinion/choosing-leaders-clueless-or-crazy.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0">David
Brooks</a> provides a handy list of Englishmen to complement every thinking Englishman’s
choice of Manhattan’s Donald Trump. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Playing with the fatal
flaws of David Cameron and Trump—one’s disastrously obsessive calculations and
the other’s terrifying crowd-pleasing impulses—confirms that entertainment can
be educational. Otherwise entertainment would’ve already destroyed our species.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Also, of course,
getting personal can win elections and does assist voters in selecting whom they
want to lead from the menu they’re offered on Election Day. Focusing on the
individual is fine for partisans and their Facebook chorus. But it’s for the
moment and not obliged to tell the whole story. We leave that work to trusted
historians.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">History’s professional
storytellers <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">do</i> influence us, but
they too consistently emphasize the players, not the ideas that keep holding us
back. They warn us that history repeats
itself because humans don’t learn from their mistakes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They too are human. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Historian Barbara
Tuchman wrote a highly influential blockbuster <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Guns of August </i>about the leadership that launched the First
World War. Following her lead, Doris Kearns Goodwin and Margaret Macmillan and
other esteemed scholars have also produced highly influential books on the prejudices,
secret demons, and follies of the leaders at Versailles, the launch of two world wars and the second Iraq War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Bay of Pigs,
Vietnam, and the Great Recession of 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Bad things happen
when the bad guys get power. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We’ve all grown up
to despise the carelessness of the aristocrats that launched the First World
War. Yet we know relatively little about the power of the popular convictions—especially,
a righteous nationalism—that they relied on to keep the slaughter grinding on
for four years. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We read widely—including
the gossip of maids and former employees, psychobabble, and the hunches of speech
and body language experts—to get a fix on the temperament of the next man or first
woman to carry America’s nuclear Red Button around for the next four years.
However, the climate of laissez-faire tolerance toward the existence of that
insane Red Button receives only passing notice. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Observers spot
crypto-fascist flashes in the words of the Brexit leaders and the tweets of
Donald Trump. Further, they see their
wins as evidence of a raging, hurting middle class, brutalized by
globalization. Yet not one of these demagogues has demonstrated excessive
passion, either right or left, for exercising state power. At the same time, we
also know that real family incomes are up and that government spending as a
share of GDP is today approximately what it was back in 1970—when Reagan was a
governor, and Margaret Thatcher a backbencher. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Be hard on politicians,
by all means. However, worrying that today’s clowns are working up to match the
monsters of the 1930s is a waste of time. Let’s be harder on the old abstractions
they’re playing with. How nationalist emotions, unbounded by external
entanglements, can be both self-destructive and dangerous. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-80907544061210233552016-06-21T08:41:00.000-04:002016-06-21T09:58:13.262-04:00Sovereignty games that only the Yankees mustn’t play<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For months, close
friends and satellites of the American military-commercial colossus have been writing
and ringing their hands purple over the possibility that an insincere,
reckless businessman who’s had everything he wanted since his first adult
dreams might win the presidency of the United States on behalf of a crazy idea:
that the US can be truly independent again. Meanwhile, this week, the former
center of the so-called Anglo-sphere will vote calmly on whether to go back to
those glorious days when the English Channel was wide enough to keep Europe’s disorderly
games at a safe distance.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s amazing how
our own affairs keep sneaking up on us while watching America burn. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sovereignty
proponents in Quebec, Scotland, and now in England are treated calmly as normal
people promoting a disruptive idea. They put their case to the people in state-organized referenda and, eventually, everyone weighs in. It’s a stimulating
exercise; it tests ideas and aspiring and incumbent politicians. So far, the
status quo prevails with arguments about incremental economic costs and, oh
yes, last-minute threats about social benefits and pensions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Why is nationalism—that
desire to not be bound collectively to other collectives less competent or less
trustworthy or less civilized than us—a tolerable sentiment in relatively small
places and for places that practiced it so disastrously barely a century ago, but
absolutely not in the USA? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My hypothesis
can’t be verified because no one can admit to it. Still, here goes: European
and Canadian politicians and opinion-makers think they can be idealistic and
emotional, and can imagine surviving safely outside the status quo, because the
US-of-A will always be there to give them security from other powers and from each
other, and will keep generating enough economic growth to keep their economies recognizably
afloat. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The longer the US
is on the scene as their steady, rather philistine, superpower, the longer the
rest of us can argue about how to make history again. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, America’s
friends can’t keep talking about transformative, existential changes for
themselves without having another patient, team-spirited, mainstream President
in the White House. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-5935242593274229202016-06-09T09:17:00.000-04:002016-06-21T09:58:43.766-04:00Our liberal order: in with a bang, out on tiptoes?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">I’ve been
nostalgic for the </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">60s ever since the interregnum presidency of good old Gerald
Ford and the popular imposition of the War Measures Act in Canada, in 1970. Its
music would still entertain us, but the lyrics of the </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">60s</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> were leading us
nowhere. I don’t adapt to signals as fast as I did back then, while working in
short pants on Parliament hill. But I never thought that in 2016 I’d already be
missing the 20th</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> century. It was a thing of beauty.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In the sphere of
private passions and private virtues (in the rich westerly provinces of Europe
and the northern regions of North America), we’re as free as the wicked visions
of the Bloomsbury set. The liberal agenda we’ve set for ourselves today pretty well
boils down to socialized suicide and a handful of leftover apologies for the
sins of our dead tribal leaders. More importantly, our bread and butter
agenda—our liberal ambitions for others, present and future—appears on hold. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The liberalism
that stood on its own, that made it entirely different from all the stern, less
human ideologies to its right and left, was a light in the dark: freedom for
everyone, not just the boss’s clever sons, would ignite creativity and personal responsibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that the prosperity, what the hell, the
awesome wealth that, together, they would generate would make life more
tolerable and interesting. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Of course, after
world war ended in 1945, peaceful competition for power resumed. But in the
West, in emergencies and when operating in quiet times in Parliaments and in
alliances, economic arguments ran within a liberal free-trade consensus: the
factions of the left and right fought over means, adjustment supports, and
timetables; when they procrastinated, they fought over adjectives, adverbs, and
clauses in joint communiqués.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">There were
optimistic liberals and nervous liberals; unilateral, bilateral and
multi-lateral liberals; liberals who were careful to preserve strong central
governments and liberals who believed that healthier markets would best diminish
corruption and reward innovation. Enjoying power within the consensus were
politicians who even preferred to call themselves </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">social democrats</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> and </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">conservatives.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> All pored over the same OECD, IMF, and World Bank numbers and studies to
bolster their niche brands.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Yet, opinions
about the times are a-changing.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We know the big
data about global rising incomes, education, health, artistic activity, and
living standards, whether in Mumbai, San Francisco, Trios-Rivieres in Quebec,
Mexico City, or Philadelphia. Yet, today, we are told to set those facts aside
and defer, if only for a while, to demagogues who don’t respect them. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Eminent
Machiavellians are telling overflowing classrooms of political junkies and
survivalists in government and big business that 20th-century
Anglo-American free trade liberalism is overripe. It must quiet down and take
a pause—wait out populist troublemakers or adopt that just-watch-me style that
nearly destroyed Europe and as waking up Asia. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">All those places
that have been laissez-faire liberal for most of the last five generations are
facing waves of refugees from wretched places ruined by anti-liberal regimes. While
we open our arms to some of their victims, our leaders are cowed by signs of local
disillusionment and outright opposition to core liberal interests. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">My fear for the
immediate future is based on the responses of our most influential liberal
institutions and liberal leaders, not the menace of dilettante bullies. Our
constitutional democracies can take a punch. The Trumps come and go. It’s the
meekness of popular liberals and influential corporate leaders that may be
making history, badly.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Here’s the
underreported response to a growing “protectionist environment” by <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/05/20/ge-immelt-globalization/">Jeff Immelt</a>, CEO of General Electric—one of a handful of truly great global enterprises—to
the Stern Business School’s graduating class, this May 20th: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“We (GE) will
localize” because “a localization strategy can’t be shut down by protectionist
politics.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“We will produce for the US in the US, but our
exports may decline. At the same time, we will localize production in big
end-use markets like Saudi Arabia. And countries with effective export banks,
like Canada, will be more attractive for investment.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Welcome to the ’30s, indeed, right up to Jeff’s early childhood in Ohio. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A corporate vision
of </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">branch-plant</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> agents negotiating with </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">import substitution</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> state bankers,
probably, will keep General Electric in business. It survived in that political
swamp in the </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’50s </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">and </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’60s.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> However, there are societal consequences when
the giants of business, and entertainers like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders,
are taken seriously when saying: “Let’s go back.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">And Harvard’s
famous <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">soft power</i> scholar <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/with-trump-the-united-states-would-be-a-weaker-power/article29959459/">Joseph
Nye</a> can rip Trump apart for his sloppy attacks on the NATO alliance without
uttering a passing reference to Trump’s rabid protectionist attacks on longstanding
as well as recently negotiated free trade agreements. Nye apparently is now
more exercised about maintaining the status quo in NATO than championing better
commercial relations as <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">soft power</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">’s</span>
way to advance US influence without always putting ever more weapons and
Americans on their soil. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Retrenchment is
back at the highest levels of free trade government. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The leaders of
Canada and the United States, two immensely popular politicians, won’t risk a
pinch of their popularity to defend and sell publicly the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, a trade and investment agreement to reduce barriers within 40% of
the world’s economy. <o:p></o:p></span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri";">A trade deal that would consolidate, if ratified—and undermined, if not ratified—the West’s presence and credibility in Japan and in emerging markets that, incidentally, have only one superpower alternative: China.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Here’s the G7’s battle
cry over the signatures of Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau in the <a href="http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/summit/2016shima/index.html">May G7 Summit
Communique</a><span class="MsoHyperlink">:</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“The signing of the TPP is an important step forward
for the establishment of a platform for common trade rules and trade
integration across the Asia-Pacific region, and we encourage each TPP signatory
to complete its domestic process.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The signatories
are encouraged, whoever they are.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Classic passive
abstractions coined by articulate bureaucrats to help passive leaders. Trudeau’s
Liberal movement remains free to keep “studying” the agreement, and Obama’s
former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can reject their TPP, along with Donald
Trump. American Democrats and Republicans now promise only US trade growth, not US eadership to fight protectionists in the West and globally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The spin amongst liberal
sophisticates in Washington and Ottawa is that the TPP, let alone NAFTA, cannot
be championed in the US presidential election. Along with carbon taxes and
entitlement reform, free trade is best done but not discussed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TPP is something lame legislators <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">might</i> do later this year so long as
other issues and personalities dominate voter passions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">It’s easy to
imagine Republican Senators voting for the TPP and, gleefully, against Trump.
It’s conceivable that President-elect Clinton would happily look the other way
as Democrat Senators and Obama ratified the TPP shortly after the election. So long as all smart people keep quiet for now. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So here we are:
free trade, arguably the greatest liberal project of the last century, must now
proceed by stealth. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Popular government
by the people will prevail as good government for the people. The music will be
turned down but it still will be played. Only the glorious open concerts will
be a thing of the past. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-54542240615414408052016-05-09T08:39:00.000-04:002016-05-09T10:43:50.648-04:00Conservatives make poor fans<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A sulky cloud has
soiled Donald Trump’s first week as the </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">presumptive</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> nominee of the Republican
Party over Washington. Professional conservatives aren’t big fans. They’re “not
ready” to lend their awesome intellectual reputations to his campaign for the
Presidency of the United States. The un-reluctant warriors of American politics
are reluctant.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Their lack of
enthusiasm for The Donald may have no impact on the outcome of the election in
November. But, it is, at least, conservative. Conservatives make lousy fans.
Their heads are never in it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Conservative Washington insider</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> is an
oxymoron. Speaker Ryan’s success—and his vision of a </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">conservative</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">president—is based on the debasement of conservative thinking. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Let me explain.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In presidential
elections, the mass market Republican Party competes with the mass market
Democratic Party. In the United States of America, mass parties can’t be
conservative; they are either good or bad liberals. And, hopefully, they will
continue to be for another century.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">America’s place in
the world and Washington’s place in America are fixed. Beginning with the end
of WW1 and ratified by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, the United
States has driven the creation of a needy, restless, egalitarian-talking—liberal—world
and now, as its one superpower, it is obliged to keep it going. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Small countries
like Canada can elect new brands as far apart as Justin Trudeau and Stephen
Harper. Few notice; fewer take offence. Their leaders can choose to tackle problems
with comfortable solutions. The President, meanwhile, must sit behind his desk
each morning, and eat shit, and leak to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">New
York Times</i> that it smells oh so sweet.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Writing a </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">conservative manifesto</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> for the Cleveland Convention may save Paul Ryan’s
sophomoric face. But it will have little to do with the conscience of careful
Americans in November.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The voters will
elect a president who will work inhumanly long hours on fixing, containing,
stalling, and neglecting problems. Think tanks will hum out papers on “small
government,” and the White House will govern.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The conservative
temperament can ally itself with liberals in a hurry, liberals with outside
interests, liberals raised on power, adaptable liberals, and adventurous or
prudent liberals. That’s the menu. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-31986138419427725862016-04-13T09:26:00.000-04:002016-04-13T11:25:09.422-04:00 Trial and error for self-promotion? (Part 2)<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Inexpensive for
those who have forever. Elderly non-entities, however, better cut corners and
master a few dos and don’ts. Even
modest goals—say, finding a new partner or just surviving in a smart social
circle—require deliberate change. (Excellent pensions and decent health have
limited shelf value.) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Here are
suggestions to get you started, safely:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>1</b>: Develop new skills and an attention-worthy project, ideally—well before you
notice you’re old and invisible. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">If you know you’re
passé at the office, retire immediately if you can. Then get excited about a
new endeavor before they start putting just one more candle on your birthday cake. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="text-underline: thick;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>2</b></span></span><span lang="EN-US">:
Test what you’ve dreamed up on a heartless friend of a friend. If you want to
do something truly out of character, pay for a consultant. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">They’ll teach you
how to dress, breathe on television, and use the tools of the social media. This
kind of shopping is easy and affordable if you live in Toronto. If they’re not
interested, your idea—in this world—isn’t interesting either.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Note: Even the
nicest people turn away from lost causes. It was tolerably sickening watching Donald
Trump “fire” breathless college graduates. Humiliating a 70-year-old,
however, would have killed his show.)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="text-underline: thick;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>3</b></span></span><span lang="EN-US">: Mine your past as little as bearable. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Care for your
brain cells and respect the limited patience of others; kill those knowing asides.
People won’t abandon an exciting idea, apocalyptic concern, or redemptive
solution merely because you’ve </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">been there, done that.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="text-underline: thick;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>4</b></span></span><span lang="EN-US">:
Never relax. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">You’re not living
in a causal culture. It’s intensely judgmental. A ponytail doesn’t make a dude.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’d only look tired and poor or vain
and passé. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="text-underline: thick;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>5</b>:</span></span><span lang="EN-US"> Don’t get emotional. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">You’re finally in
touch with your feelings of remorse, disappointment, injustice, and loneliness.
Congratulations. If you can’t stop picking at them, write an encrypted diary. Being
anxious about finally leaving home, your first divorce, and getting old can be
sexy; that’s established public art. Being a nervous wreck about failing
socially or professionally at 75 is usually creepy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Then again, when
is pride ever free?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-83239609216571776892016-04-13T07:32:00.001-04:002016-04-13T08:14:16.350-04:00Thinking about being visible, and 70? (Part 1)<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Inspired by Ian Brown’s page-turner “Sixty: The
Beginning of the End, or the End of the Beginning?”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let’s get into
this slowly. After all, this hopeful essay attacks a delicate subject,
concerning the most delicate among us, our post-70 cohort. Most Canadians
seem relaxed having a bloodline-determined head of state while waking up each
morning in a whimsical celebrity world. Winning the lottery is dandy. Watching the mighty fall can be a joy. Discreet
name-dropping is tolerable. However, watching old non-entities still struggling
for attention, repeatedly telling stale tales of old battles makes everyone,
and especially the children, feel uncomfortable. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Abandoned on a
thicketed hillside next to a friend’s cottage on the shore of Owen Sound is a 60-foot-long,
ferro-concrete shell of a bluewater sailboat, a giant grey bug propped up on a
dozen useless legs. It expresses years of determination, craftsmanship, and hard
labor. At the same time, it tells another story: the builder, the dreamer who ran
out of money, time, and, possibly, his health. Sad and glorious. But, not
laughable. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unlike the doomed
boat-builder, however, the elderly attention-seeker must also be brave, because
he or she succeeds or fails with us. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If grey
attention-seekers are looking </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">only </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">for eye contact and a smile, they can find a
book somewhere and flip the pages of “How to Build the Boat of Your Dreams” or “How to Learn Spanish” or “The Dos and Don’ts of Being a Grandparent”
or “How to Write a Screenplay” or “Buy Property in Sicily.” Easy and safe.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But how would we
feel standing beside a senior trying to purchase “How to Be Visible after You’re 70”? Hopeful? Or embarrassed?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There are medical
reasons for coaxing 17-year-olds to buy prophylactics. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Well-being</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> services for seniors, including support for timely erections, are often covered
in our public and private insurance plans. They’re now </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">public goods.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> In
addition, however, they’re plausible excuses to buy that wicked book.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The oldest
generation’s most prominent voices eventually will fade away. While that process
grinds away, however, let’s prick our ears. Once in a while, an old non-entity
will have something useful, even delightful, to say.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of us will remain social animals, right
up to that </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">good death</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> out there.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Courts decided
that, after 65, we could keep our university and business careers and menial jobs
until we’re incontestably incompetent. Between that new right and the new one
about dying, we obviously have the right to be visible.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Smell the coffee.
The West is hugely influenced already by 70-somethings, predominantly men.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A year from now,
neophilia America will be lead by Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or Donald
Trump. (Michael Bloomberg decided the race was too crowded by insiders.) We
follow the thoughts of Paul Simon, Leonard Cohen, Mick Jagger, Christopher
Plummer, Paul McCartney, Neil Young, David Cronenberg, John le Carré Joan
Didion, Toni Morrison, David Gergen, Bill Clinton, Henry Kissinger, Pope
Francis, and every aside by Bob Dylan. The startling new Toronto hangs on the
opinions of David Crombie, Stephen Lewis, Michael Enright, David Peterson,
Frank Gehry, and Jack Diamond. And the whole country listens to and pays for the
liberating pension protection of four hearty retired prime ministers, numerous
former ministers, Preston Manning, and countless deputies, ADMs, and bank
governors who allegedly know Ottawa and Beijing inside out. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And the terrible shiny
top of the baby boom is twinkling just offshore.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Please, don’t feel
bullied into simply paying closer attention to </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">icons</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> and giving them extra,
extra airtime. The problem is the unarticulated, unattended, and often brutal
market barriers facing new voices over 70, including mine!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Respect your
elders, if you wish. But, please, not their pecking order.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we’re going to
save our less-than-young country—literally, its appetite to see and act anew—we
must create a world-class, competitive market among seniors, similar to the one
we impose on the young. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Social reformers,
however, won’t touch our celebrities and aren’t interested in helping old
non-entities with that neurotic spark.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Getting
attention is our problem. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>(Cont.)</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-91987072827716123652016-03-23T06:13:00.000-04:002016-06-07T17:24:22.016-04:00‘Sunny ways’ and ‘voodoo economics’<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The expression </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">“</span><span style="color: #1c1c1c;">sunny ways</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">”</span><span style="color: #1c1c1c;"> was
coined by Wilfred Laurier to spin the compromises his government had to fashion
to hold an intolerant, very young country together. He was a careful builder,
befitting his time. Justin Trudeau uses the same expression proudly, as an unqualified
optimist.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Laurier, however, was a classic
anti-authoritarian, small-government Liberal. He carried on nation-building
infrastructure projects and honored the debts incurred by that binge conservative
John A. Macdonald. Above all, he looked to trade an individual initiative to
grow the economy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Laurier is not the inspiration
behind Justin Trudeau’s fiscal policy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The greatest contemporary
practitioner of <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">“</span>sunny ways<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">”</span> was Ronald Reagan. He understood that lecturing
tolerance and applying a traditional conservative fiscal policy wouldn’t
sustain his extraordinary popularity. And he liked being liked. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">According to the Joint Economic
Committee of the US Congress (1996), over his eight years in the White House, personal
income tax revenues declined from 9.4% of GDP to 8.3% of GDP. US federal government
spending and deficits, as his critics warned, soared. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Justin Trudeau has Reagan’s
nature, only with new demons to throw money at. Allegedly, he too has been
underestimated all his professional life. As with Reagan, his critics are
simply those who still don’t get it. Reagan would shrug; Trudeau worries that
they’re </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">“</span><span style="color: #1c1c1c;">deranged.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">”</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1c1c1c;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So, as George H. W. Bush, a dogged
evidence-based politician, complained about
Reagan’s sunny growth strategy in the 1980s Republican primaries, Canada now
has a fiscal policy in place in Ottawa that can, as well, be called </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">“</span><span style="color: #1c1c1c;">voodoo
economics.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">”</span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-84704270982197597022016-03-21T08:56:00.000-04:002016-03-21T13:48:45.530-04:00A peek at Barack Obama’s legacy<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A president’s </span></span>“legacy
agenda” are those projects a White House wants us to treat as especially
serious, above petty politics. They’re intended to improve America’s prospects
and impress historians. As such, they’re always bigger and classier than the
business at hand. They can also crowd out other merely worthwhile interests.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For instance, Obama’s </span></span>“<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">legacy</span></span>” project of securing American leadership in the fight against climate
change has been invoked by as sufficient reason to restrict energy trade with
Canada. His project of securing greater American influence in Asia means less
protection for vulnerable American workers and less generous investment of
American power in the Middle East.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As his power fades,
Obama’s work on his </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">legacy agenda</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> is now largely rhetorical and contingent on
the uncertain support of others. What he’s penned in speeches and executive
orders will need to be honored in hundreds of big and small and unpleasant decisions
by China, Japan, South Korea, India and, oh yes, the courts and the next president of the United States. Nevertheless, even rhetoric can alter the
future. Obama’s favorite conservative president, Dwight Eisenhower, coined that
ear bug: “military-industrial complex.</span></span>” The complex has kept up with the growth
of the US economy, but Ike did entrench a healthy fear of it at the center of
America’s political culture.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With months left
as president, Obama’s l</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">egacy</span></span> work will be cultural as well. While he talks with
conviction about the world, he’s building his place in history at home.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">His utterances on
climate change and his calm crisis-management style are entrenching two powerful
political memes: that today only liberals respect scientific evidence and, that
since a black man can be a thought-minded, essentially conservative president of
these troubled United States, then any talented outsiders can.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">(Thanks to the
discipline and often-tedious formality of Obama’s presidency, change in the
White House is now so normal an idea that it’s possible that even a white male
will beat a woman in this November’s election.) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">His science
project and his global pivot, however, largely rest with that woman: Hillary
Clinton.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A deft Republican
president (Jeb Bush or possibly Marco Rubio or John Kasich) could have
consolidated major components of Obamas foreign policy: global trade
agreements, restraint in the Middle East, activism in Asia, and steady collaboration
with other major powers on climate change. However, a Donald Trump or a Ted
Cruz victory would be humiliating. At least Woodrow Wilson didn’t live to see
what the Republican Roaring </span></span>Twenties did to his liberal vision of collective
security. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Obama’s homilies
on race and civility during the Republican primaries likely helped make Trump
an irresistible hero on the right. Now that his nomination is almost
unavoidable, Obama will have to move heaven and earth to make sure he is, in
fact—what Democrat fantasists had idly presumed, months ago—a Republican
disaster this fall.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Whatever we think
of the Clinton election machine’s touch or integrity, a Clinton presidency will
be compelled to guard the hardening cement at the base of Obama’s legacy. It
will end up backing his trade agreements and being as careful in the Middle
East. It will want to try and might do better at finding bipartisan support
where Obama failed legislatively. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is bittersweet
that Obama’s most ambitious dreams need the election of another Clinton. But
the world would probably be that much nicer even if Hillary Clinton doesn’t achieve
much more than being the president who entrenched Barack Obama’s legacy.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-9933330089037932002016-03-14T08:37:00.000-04:002016-03-14T14:18:32.906-04:00Grooming and the fate of the West<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Transatlantic
intellectuals relax by riffing on old notions. Let’s play with one of their
most appealing: this civilization’s fate requires enlightened, united
leadership by the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada: the old lion,
the midlife crisis, and loyal Peter Pan.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As usual, their
talent scouts today are driven by existential concerns. The UK wants to be more
British, even if it requires losing Scotland and blowing up the European Union.
The US wants to feel in charge of the world again, while tempted to blow up its
own head office. And Canada wants to rethink its world view: Should it stay
back with its decrepit Anglo partners or gamble that a giant in Asia has the
staying power and temperament to be its new best friend.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The leaders needn’t be perfect—one person
alone never gets to do anything historic in this civilization. Punching softly
above our weight, however, still demands that leaders be interesting and
commonsensical as well. (All three are asset rich; two members have live nuclear
weapons and still have the taste of world dominion in their mouths.) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So, what’s in
store? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Boris Johnson,
Mayor of London and, simultaneously, an MP and Churchillian troublemaker, has
lovely thin, blond strands that are so high Anglican that he must religiously
mess up his locks before appearing in public. He’s now leading the charge to
pull the UK out of the European Union and become the next Conservative Prime
Minister.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Donald Trump, mega-real-estate
dealmaker and famous builder of dreams, manipulates the golden threads he has left
with a delicacy that well serves men with little hands. He’s threatening to
introduce Great Depression–level tariffs and build a military so awesome that his
enemies will trade in their swords for casino chips. He expects to make good
deals with a world full of politicians itching to tell POTUS to get lost.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Justin Trudeau
climbed up each rung of the political ladder by winning elections outside and
within the Liberal Party. He’s bringing Canada back to what the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">New York Times</i> imagined Canada was
before the Dark Decade. He needn’t really give a damn about his exquisite hair.
Yet his barber(s) surely must work tirelessly at highlighting all his rakish,
wide-eyed, and deliberative sides. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">By year-end, our three
great democracies may be led by three gifted groomers. They offer pictures of themselves and better
times. They’re not policy wonks. But policies don’t last that long either. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-38479676632993364182016-02-26T14:43:00.001-05:002016-02-29T07:52:27.223-05:00Toronto’s throbbing millennial whatever<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">When I was a boy,
old-stock Loyalists read Professor George Grant and groused that US corporate capitalism
had so corrupted Canada’s politics that future rhetoric about an independent
Canada would be just that. The first point of entry was, allegedly, post-war
Toronto: once London’s, then Montreal’s, and, finally, the Big Apple’s dull,
deferential middleman. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">The deadly
seduction Grant lamented was off by 50 years, which isn’t that long for a
theologian. But with a twist: Instead of making their widgets Torontonians
today, make music with Americans, shout out their street beats and grievances,
and compete with them at their games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">You’d think, at
first glance, that Toronto today is actually Canada’s un-American nation-builder.
Didn’t the city market and elect my-way-or-</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">elect <i>Cit</i></span><i style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', serif;"><span style="color: #6a6a6a; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">é</span> Libre</i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">’s</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"> Pierre Trudeau? Didn’t it resist all pro-American copycats from Alberta—and become Canada’s anti-American commentary and arts capital? </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">And, just last fall, didn’t it manage and elect
Justin Trudeau, an untiring promoter of values we celebrate as Canadian originals?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">It’s apparent now that Toronto (a) dominates Canada’s politics and (b) has become <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">less not American</i> in its thinking than Grant could have imaged. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">First, never has
so much power in Canada accrued to such an unassuming, jumpy place as the
political ecosystem centered in Toronto. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Thanks to the last
decade of massive immigration and rep-by-pop electoral reform, there are enough
pensioners, workers, postsecondary students, teachers, homemakers, fans,
performers and professionals of every kind residing within an hour’s drive of
the CN Tower to elect 72 Members of Parliament. That’s nearly half of an
absolute majority in Canada’s all-powerful House of Commons. That’s Harper’s
Big Shift, certainly his most portentous and unruly legacy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Just think of this
region’s relative numerical weight: 72 votes is double the wattage of the
entire Atlantic Region, just short of Quebec’s 78 and, together, British Columbia’s and
Alberta’s 76. Further, except for Vancouver, they swing— and there’s no natural
majority alliance that can exclude or count on them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Second, their flag-wavers
are not Canadian like others. They can be won and as quickly lost, according to
a plethora of trends and styles in the United State’s most powerful
cosmopolitan centers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Justin Trudeau
expressed beautifully their city’s clean, postmodern, cerebral marketing brand
when he boasted in Davos, Switzerland, that Canada’s “resourcefulness” not its
“resources” drives its future. The anxiety and insecurity of commodity regions
is so old Canada, and so not Toronto. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Toronto’s almost inexplicable,
yet unrelenting success has been rewarded, cynics might argue, by a false consciousness:
a talent-driven, endlessly adaptable, slightly more civil North American giant.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Toronto doesn’t
add to, or account for, any of the mess in Washington. It counts, however, as
one of the continent’s biggest sports and entertainment capitals, alongside New
York, Los Angeles, Houston and Chicago. As good friend and writer Norman
Snider notes: "Torontonians don’t know or care to know the names of the city’s
big bank CEOs or who exactly is Canada’s ceremonial head of state. But they
know the names and compensation arrangements of a dozen Toronto international sports
and music stars, from Chris Bosh, Andrew Wiggins to Drake."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Furthermore, immigrants
have not been pulling Toronto away from that famously ugly American neighbor,
as we might have supposed. In many respects, they come here to be as close to the
US and its culture as is safe; and, as well for living in a global hub for
quick flights home and back. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">They’re transient
globalists as much as mobile Canadians. They brought iPhones and designer jeans
with them and shop in Buffalo, if the price is right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">As important, they
came here to get away from extremes; they take their politics lite. Essentially,
they’re living that materialistic American Dream that Grant so loathed and that
Americans fear they’re losing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Toronto’s sheer
numbers dominate, not any local idea.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">There are things
Americans won’t do—feel free to call mandatory public health insurance a
Canadian value, if you must. However, there’re no longer any better ways than
American ways to win elections in Toronto. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Our quite old national
border is anti-American and now anti-Toronto as well. "American" is the
way we relax and talk to each other, and excel in the world.<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-22302333090506819012016-01-27T08:37:00.000-05:002016-01-27T14:46:00.952-05:00Being silly doesn’t count in January<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘ </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">Crazy</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;"> gets people’s attention. On this past Monday, if
you’d googled “moderate” and “crazy” presidential candidates, you would have
seen some 1.8-million searches for the moderates against some 34.3-million for
the crazies. And that’s after a weekend of national speculation about Michael
Bloomberg, a moderate as cool in power as Barack Obama.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reporters
from Canada, Western Europe and Washington go forth carrying two big-league
hooks in their heads. First, that that other network’s base is crazy and, second, even mature
candidates must be liked by the crazies to win. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>W.B. Yeats’s “The Second Coming” and Hunter S. Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the
Campaign Trail” juice up what they write. They see volcanic forces in church basements.
After so many false starts, that crazy Dark Age is finally coming.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Essentially,
however, nothing is actually happening.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Terrible
scenarios are only scenarios. By and large, partisan audiences in Iowa don’t
know what xenophobia means nor do they understand the ideological distinction
between Donald Trump’s great wall and Barack Obama’s razor wire fences and his infinitesimal
admittance of Syrian refugees verses Trump’s thunderous pause. At the same
time, Senator Bernie Sanders’s passionate audiences don’t know how to be good “socialists”
in the Democratic Party and don’t know whether Sanders knows how to be one
either. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today’s </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">favorables</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;"> and </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">“</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">rankings</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;">”</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-indent: -14.2pt;"> don’t tell us anything of lasting significance about today’s serious
contenders or their audiences.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
January, they twist what they think and pander to the wild eyes in the room. The
Republicans simply offer a younger, wider selection. The gaucheness of the two top
Republican candidates and the implausible Democrat from stolid Vermont
mesmerize the media. But there’s zero evidence yet that a winning majority in
either party has lost command of the distinction between entertainment and
electing the next president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you’re
thinking: now’s the time to emigrate to a quiet conservative place like Alberta
or a quiet liberal place like Prince Edward Island, the following might settle
you down.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—</span><span lang="EN-US">America’s most-liked politician is still
boring Barack Obama. And he’s hardly suffering in silence. He still relishes
being a target, coxing Republicans into sticky corners, and not being extreme.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—</span><span lang="EN-US">Overwhelmingly, the same Republicans and
Democrats and Independents that will elect the next president have consistently
elected self-proclaimed moderate presidents through the severe ups and downs
since the collapse of the Soviet Union.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—</span><span lang="EN-US">It is impolite to say times are getting
better—but for almost every single American who will turn up to vote in
November, they are. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—</span><span lang="EN-US">Millenials are carrying amazingly
optimistic levels of student and mortgage debt, as investors in the two
quintessential elements of the American Dream. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—</span><span lang="EN-US">Whatever they wear on their heads or tell
their grandchildren about Vietnam and the Detroit riots, the boomer voters own their
homes and plenty of shares in nervous stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They drink,
with a designated driver. They howl at the moon when it’s safe</span><span lang="EN">—</span></span><span lang="EN-US">but not when they vote. <span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105020302989183056.post-63188370236808558712016-01-21T07:40:00.000-05:002016-01-21T11:02:49.699-05:00Governor Poloz’s advice: You, not my bank, must change (Part 3)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Let’s agree that after 45 years of official
indifference it’s time for our elected representatives and their agent</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">—</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">the Bank of Canada</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">—</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">to acknowledge that the dollar’s exchange price is a
public responsibility, not strictly a market responsibility. It’s time they set
aside some of their busy, busy work for a big-policy deliberation. It being 2016,
however, we can’t just leave them free and naked to think on their own.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">After decades of official silence, what might the
government say about the dollar’s value? In the spirit of incrementalism, here
are three positions of escalating significance and consequence. All would aim
to influence the government’s overall fiscal and monetary choices, how we and the
market judge those choices. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Hopefully, they would enhance our credibility and bolster
our purchasing power on this continent and globally:</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1. Make a ‘Strong Dollar’
Declaration of Intent:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">This would go well beyond in-camera meetings with
government officials and public lectures by retired bank governor David Dodge. New
York, London and Davos bankers wouldn’t be the primary audience. Canadians
would be told that the bank governor, the PM and the minister of finance
declare that their policies and economic vision will support a strong dollar, not
rely on a cheap one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Along with full employment, structurally balanced
budgets and stable prices, the government would accept that a stronger dollar
must also be a public objective. A stronger dollar would be a tangible
benchmark for consideration in the next election, as well as a benchmark in the bank governor’s and economic minister’s performance contracts. If Poloz isn’t enthusiastic, someone else should
have the job. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">2. Pick a Number between 80
and 85 cents: <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Instead of holding interest rates below those set by
the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada could intervene to hurry up the
dollar’s recovery. Going back to at least 80 to 85 cents against the US dollar
would provide immediate relief to consumers and place a transparent government
performance test on the table. Those economists who so blithely argue that we
can carry a $30-billion federal deficit should agree that the bank has the
resources and credibility to defend a modest exchange rate target. It was pegged
at 92.5+/-cents through the </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', serif;">60s when the Pearson Government created the CPP
and Medicare, and negotiated the popular free trade Auto Pact with the US.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A value of 85 cents US would be a stretch for our least-cost-competitive industries. It would say, effectively, that if you can’t adjust,
get into another line of business; ask for help, if need be, but stop expecting
everyone else to stay 30% poorer. The bank would only have to intervene
significantly in the currency markets if the government failed to secure the
public and the market’s trust that it can govern within its means. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">3. Make Getting Back to Parity
a Medium-Term Objective:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">The basic factors of production up here</span><span lang="EN">—</span><span lang="EN-US">worker skills, population age, public infrastructure,
access to money, reputation for competent public administration and respect for
individuals and property, urban density and global brand</span><span lang="EN">—</span><span lang="EN-US">make our growing-increasingly-diversified regions competitive
with America’s own regional champions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">There is no security or excuse for perpetuating, as
public policy, a currency below par. As they say: It’s not who we are.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">All three
proposals I sketched out would aim to take advantage, not alter who we are: a
series of economic regions chasing the same material and social goals Janet
Yellen’s US Federal Reserve is trying to serve. Yes, Canadian monetary policy
(interest rates and money supply) and stabilization policy (government expenditures,
taxes and deficits) would have to be in harmony with Washington policy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Acknowledging that would still allow us </span><span lang="EN-US">to debate the underlying issue: Do we maximize who we
are now</span><span lang="EN">—</span><span lang="EN-US">a capitalist satellite of the US and its
Dream—</span><span lang="EN-US">or do we want to build another vision, be a
more centralized social democracy or good ol</span></span><span style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', serif;">’</span><span style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', serif;"> fashion isolation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -21.6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">But the status quo deserves better than a 70-cent
dollar.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Les Horswillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14228684169934792598noreply@blogger.com0