The elites we
reward when we vote can handle hooded reactionaries in Eastern Europe and
hooded reactionaries in the Middle East. It’s change at home that befuddles
them.
Incumbent
governments and their leaders in Canada, US, and Europe confidently seek
re-election as steady international problem-solvers. They scorn isolationists
and nationalist romantics, and promise to continue killing violent radicals.
It’s the height of
sophistication to spell, pronounce, and accurately categorize the latest bad-boy
sects abroad. At home, they use stale generalizations and stale labels to put
down resistance that even breathes in the polls.
Insiders mortgage
their lives to stay on top and tell us not to fear change. They ask us to
trust them and, also, to run away from political "paranoids."
Our overstaffed
governors know more about our pressure points, our private lives, and our
political biases — literally, how to handle us — than any governing elite in history.
And the gathering
wave of political frontrunners stands for continuity. Justin Trudeau, Hillary
Clinton, Thomas Mulcair, and Ed Miliband are born political animals. When they
get emotional, it’s about the past.
If the West’s
strategic advantage were strictly conservative, we’d be blessed.
Being decisive
overseas, unfortunately, is making it less necessary for our leaders to lead
change at home — where our true advantage lies.
Today’s nihilists
and corrupt authoritarians are child’s play compared to the enemies Western
leaders faced only two generations ago. That, alone, is hardly a bad thing.
Making headline news by managing manageable problems elsewhere, however, has
become addictive. And the skills necessary to address novel challenges here are
not being effectively exercised.
Decision-makers
and agenda-setters can’t get exercised about everything of consequence — at the
same time. They learn from their
successes, less from failures, and almost nothing from what they leave for
their successors.
They make trade-offs
and nudge us to as well. The people don’t want to elect a Jimmy Carter and a
Ronald Reagan for the same term.
When history sums
things up, there’s a decent chance Obama is going to score as the most transformative
foreign policy President since Richard Nixon. America’s postwar baby — global
capitalism — is growing despite a severe global recession. American foreign
policy is becoming less burdensome, less beholden to old sentiments and arrangements
in Europe and the Middle East, and US public opinion has moved along with him.
Domestically, however,
there’s a decent chance he’ll be seen as another coy conservative who employed
his eloquence and personal popularity to make it politically respectable to let
significant problems fester. In his
second term, “not doing stupid stuff” domestically has come to mean: don’t
overreach, always appeal to tested homilies, and never fail conspicuously.
Tethering
significant domestic responsibilities to entrenched clichés may save a handful
of unproductive Democrats in Congress. But that won’t change Congress.
Doing some good is
not always better than trying to do too much.
Climate change is
a classic example.
Rather than
repeating what every reasonable person already knows and passing executive orders that can be scrapped by the next President unilaterally, Obama could put
forward a concrete legislative plan, including an unlovable carbon tax. He has
the voice, if not to win immediately in Congress, at least to bind one national
political party to a concrete, comprehensive response.
Obama’s healthcare
accomplishment was built on the shoulders of numerous failures. So was
Roosevelt’s New Deal. A viable response to climate change probably needs at
least one President who can loose big as well as give strong speeches.
One of the
essential reasons the West has been more adaptive than its ideological
adversaries has been the relative freedom of its leaders to overreach, to ask
a little too much of the people and powerful interests — and lose.
Happily, our
vanquished leaders don’t need private armies, Swiss bank accounts, or safe
houses overseas. They can fail.
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