The Scots gave the world Adam Smith’s
mind and Canada’s banking culture. Naturally, their sovereigntist government
wants to keep the Pound, their common currency with Britain and their 40-year-old free trade association with the European Union as well.
The response of England’s political,
bureaucratic, and business leaders now effectively mimics Canadian federalist "no"
campaigns in Quebec’s two independence referenda. This shouldn’t, however, make
Canadian federalists proud. Cameron, his ministers, and their Bank Governor
(Canada’s former Bank Governor) Mark Carney, and now backed by England’s business
leaders, are hammering those careful Scots with that terrible word: instability.
Carney first advised the Scots that
their wished-for independence would be highly circumscribed in this
interdependent world of easy nervous flows of capital. The "no" campaigners insist, too, that
what’s left of the United Kingdom could, in fact, refuse to let Scotland stay
in the Pound currency area and, as well, that the EU might be reluctant to
allow them to stay in the European common market as an independent nation. They
could destabilize politics in Europe and cause uncertainty about the stability
of the Pound.
If the Scots vote to stay, these
warnings will appear shrewd. If the Scots leave, these warnings probably will not
survive the night the votes are counted.
Nothing about the future uttered in any
election campaign can be totally refuted. Nevertheless, their warnings are both
hypocritical and farfetched.
Britain’s precious Pound and Carney’s
old Canadian dollar are highly influenced by what others think of their
government’s fiscal and monetary policies. Neither Britain, nor Canada, nor a
separate Scotland in the future would be free to do — or threaten to do —
whatever it likes economically. Economically literate Scots know about the
limits of economic sovereignty today as well — and possibly better — than
anti-Europe and anti-American nationalists in either Britain or Canada.
Indeed, there exists no separatist sentiment
in Scotland as nostalgic and as ambitious as Britain’s vehement keep-the-Pound-and-don’t-use-the-Euro
majority to Scotland’s south.
If the rest of the United Kingdom
refused to maintain its currency union with an independent Scotland, their
citizens and businesses that hold equity in Scotland could lose a fortune, and
Carney’s Pound would become even less stable in currency markets.
The "no" campaign says their threat is
credible because keeping an independent Scotland in the currency union could
threaten the Pound’s reputation. The Scots, after all, could turn around and
act like the Greeks and those other places on the continent that still don’t
speak English in the office.
This is truly bizarre.
Today, Scotland holds 59 seats in the
UK Parliament. A Scot today has as much right as a Londoner to aspire to be
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or Governor of its central bank. Cameron,
Carney, and the entire English establishment sleep soundly knowing: if the Scots
vote "no" in the referendum, the Scottish electorate next year could determine who forms the next government of the United Kingdom.
They’re smart enough to influence the
destiny of the United Kingdom. But they’re not competent to manage their own
affairs?
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