Thomas Mulcair’s Keystone XL Duck

Despite different family trees and social pretensions, centrist social democrats and centrist liberals in Canada offer the same opposition and alternative vision to Stephen Harper’s Canada.

Style-wise, of course, they still see things differently. Liberals strain to be exciting; social democrats fret about sounding respectable and being well mannered. Social democrat politesse is especially important when visiting Washington. Certainly, according to Paul Koring in his Globe piece, “Mulcair to sidestep Keystone on U.S. Trip,” that appears to be New Democrat Opposition Leader Thomas Mulcair’s biggest concern.

Here’s his prepared line on the only Canadian issue that presently interests Washingtonians:

“My position is that the Americans are going to sort themselves out (on Keystone) based on their own rules,” he said Sunday in a telephone interview, declining to offer either clear support for the pipeline that will funnel Alberta oil-sands crude to Texas refineries or urge it be rejected, as demanded by U.S. environmental groups.”

Rather than offend unilateralist impulses in progressive circles in Washington by alluding to Canada-US trade interests and formal covenants, he wants to educate Americans on the NDP’s “vision for the future,” including that 19th-century habit of subsidizing east-west capital projects to make Canada secure and (presumably) not reliant on Americans and their precious rules.

This message will bore Americans and will play very poorly back in Canada.

No American in Washington who’ll be listing to Thomas Mulcair won’t already know that numerous Canadian politicians and flush patriotic bankers are talking up multi-billion dollar east-west infrastructure projects—nation-building ideas that economics didn’t favor in the past. 

From coast to coast, they remain worth studying, but, commercially, not—yet—are worth doing.

On the other hand, the Keystone XL Project has already been financed privately, has oil suppliers and customers, and has the immediate capacity to restore confidence in Alberta’s economy and Canada’s relationship with the United States—without compromising joint work on a gimmick-light, North American Climate Change strategy.

When talking about energy options, Thomas Muclair should know that it’s first necessary to make sense to those who are energy literate—and have an immediate interest in the issue. Unless gasoline prices at the pump are rising, the millions who smile when he repeats nationalist bromides will be smiling for Justin tomorrow.

Thomas Mulcair’s promising start

It’s ridiculously early to pick a winner in the race for the leadership of the New Democratic Party, but any clean break in the bland stasis of Canadian politics deserves appreciation.

Thomas Mulcair — the temperamental Liberal switcher who broke into federal politics in 2007 as Quebec’s only elected New Democrat and now effectively leads 59 members of Parliament from Quebec, — looks as good in action as he looks on paper.

Lawrence Martin, national columnist and obsessive headhunter for a progressive alternative to Stephen Harper, wisely dismissed the whisper about Mulcair’s manners and advised timid New Democrats to not frustrate his chances in favor of a more affable, reputedly, shrewd insider:

“Mr. Mulcair wants the leadership, but there is a good chance that he won’t run. The anti-Mulcair forces want a quick leadership convention, perhaps as early as January, to stop him. ‘If we precipitate this,’ says Mr. Mulcair speaking of the convention timetable, ‘we would be hobbled. The process is going to be a determining factor in our decision.’

“For the party to hobble the most highly qualified candidate would make no sense. The New Democrats are in the big leagues now and if they want to stay there they need a big leaguer – whether they like him or not.”

Click on: www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lawrence-martin/firebrand-mulcair-is-the-best-bet-to-take-on-harper/article2152485/

What’s most exciting about Mulcair’s emergence is his obvious willingness to play hardball within his own party.

He’s clearly confident that if the party executive gives him the time, he’ll do well selling memberships and winning votes outside Quebec. Rather than meekly lobby the party executive for more time, however, he went public last week and made it clear that he won’t run if he isn’t granted more time. This Friday, they will likely bow to his terms. He’ll come out of the gate with the same detractors — but with enough time to win.

Mulcair was born into a Liberal family, studied law at McGill, worked for the Quebec Government and got his start in Liberal politics. Jack Layton was raised in a prominent Progressive Conservative family, but studied politics at York University, became a fulltime community activist, and worked his way to the top of the New Democrats.  The former reluctantly abandoned his family’s politics; the later never accepted his. Only Jack biked to work. 

Mulcair is a gambler and a clearheaded son of a bitch. This is a rare and generally a good thing in politics, particularly in organizations that dream long-term and usually settle for moral victories. Pierre Trudeau was called a son of a bitch on the floor of his Liberal leadership convention in 1968.

Thomas Mulcair is not another sunny spirit like Jack Layton. But then again neither were ruthless, often brutal progressives like Pierre Trudeau, David Lewis, and Jean Chretien.

There is only one thing the New Democrats must do, for now, if they want to lead the left into power: stay well ahead of the Liberals. Mulcair looks like the ticket.

Friday wrap-up: Liberal Party’s stake in Ontario

Jack Layton’s state funeral honored a gentleman and, as likely, excited in New Democrats and Liberals a fresh interest in trench politics—in beating one another in order to secure a better position in the race for political power.

To defeat the Harper Conservatives in the next federal election, either the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party must collapse or the two must merge. The second option will not come into play until after they’ve tried to destroy one another. The recovery of the center-left in Canada, therefore, will first be dominated by internal strife. Don’t expect to hear anything very new or telling about the Conservatives. Expect to hear a lot of fresh nasty things about socialist illusions and liberal hubris.

For the next six weeks, Question Period in Ottawa, Bob Rae’s wit, and Thomas Mulcair’s temperament will count for nothing. Rather, the Ontario provincial election on October 6th could be fatal to the national Liberal Party.

If Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Government survives, Liberals in Ottawa will be able to put their humiliating national defeat in May behind them. They were done in, they will insist, by a perfect storm, a freakish occurrence. “We can come back as we are: after all, Ontario is our political home, McGuinty’s balanced style is ours as well, and, besides, they NDP didn’t move out of third place.” That message could get the Liberals through all the way to another federal election.

However, the Liberals will be in a terrible place nationally if the Conservatives led by Tim Hudak win and, as likely, if the New Democrat’s leader Andrea Horvath increases their popular vote. The Ontario Government is the Liberal Party’s last real claim to power in the one region they must dominate in order to beat the Conservatives nationally. Being out of office in Ontario and with far fewer seats than the NDP in the other key battlegrounds—British Columbia and Quebec—would leave them looking like spoilers; amateurs who can’t face facts.

Natural governing parties, like the Liberal Party of Canada, are not naturally optimistic.

Imagine Bob Rae going around the country for the next year and a half talking up Liberal prospects without a power base in Ontario. (Of course, that possibility will stir the hearts of every New Democrat with any free time to campaign in Ontario over the next six weeks.)

Dalton McGuinty and the federal Liberals will campaign with a passion to save Ontario from having too many Conservative governments. However, New Democrats will be content to settle for just one less Liberal one for now.