When I was a kid,
I started writing letters to Progressive Conservatives packed with “strategic
advice” about not losing elections to Liberals. Habits that stir you are hard
to break. And now, despite a career of neutral service to three governing
parties in Ontario, the itch is back—and I’m free to scratch it. I love
competitive politics and believe that fearing close elections is good for every
government. That usually requires Conservatives not being branded as weird
aliens.
(New Democrats
eventually got past the problem when their “democratic socialist” leaders
became “social democrats.”)
Today, the
Conservative Party of Canada is singularly exposed. So here goes.
Less than halfway
to the next election, the party’s membership faces unsure electoral
opportunities and two dangerous questions. Will there be a leadership candidate
on the ballot in May who can define themselves and then beat Justin Trudeau
without being competent in French and, united, how do they cope with Donald
Trump’s toxic presidency next door?
Assuming currently
reported confidence that Canada is on “the right track” falters, and an
appetite for change returns, is it plausible to explain new ideas and promise
to heal divisions almost entirely in English? Can a Conservative leader go on
the attack relying on simultaneous translation? In this age of personality
politics, will Quebecers stop judging the whole man or woman and settle for memorized
platitudes?
But let’s move on
from a known known.
In designing an aggressive
Conservative alternative for the next election, let’s look at six ways of not being
branded Trumpets. As befits the subject, most are downers, with one promising
gamble at the end.
1. Denying Trump’s
shadow is useless.
The new President
is like a stray puppy, unpredictable, unattractive and irresistible. He’ll be
on the Conservative leader’s porch first thing the next morning. And even if he
or she doesn’t feed him, Liberals will be over before sunrise to keep him
frisky.
Insist that Trump
is not really a conservative—that he’s an “independent,” a “populist,” a “fraud,” whatever. According to the meme of the moment, the very day the new leader
complains about Ottawa and its insatiable elites, he or she will be called out for
playing to a “Trump-lite” base.
2. As important as
being new, avoid being a Canadian “Republican.”
In Canada, fear of
populist US Republicans generates more votes than fear of immigrants, foreign
investors, global epidemics, and family dynasties. Loathing the right half of
America is polite shorthand for: Americans are sick and we’re not.
Sure, opposition
leaders can, and I would argue, should be able to promote ideas a slim majority
of Canadians might not yet like. But they can’t lean against a long-held
distaste for xenophobic US right-wingers that 80% of adult Canadians enjoy and
nourish.
3. Being louder patriots
won’t impress.
Canada’s nationalism
is Liberal now. Weird historically, but done. Standing up for “Canadian values” is Justin Trudeau’s franchise.
America’s “I’m mad
as hell” Presidency will grow hoarse and all those angry T-shirts will fade before
Canada’s next election. However, it is extremely unlikely Canadian voters will
look for or find reasons to stop disliking Donald Trump, his angry supporters, or his chauvinist style.
Our politics and
the Charter tolerate cynical imitation. There is, however, a well-earned pride
amongst old Tory partisans for preferring to lose honorably. Losing as populist
counterfeits to Justin Trudeau would be ugly. People would laugh. Eye contact
would be difficult, and without eye contact, amassing $millions more than the
competition won’t take a political campaign anywhere.
4. Telling
Liberals to be aggressive trade negotiators is lame.
Don’t be too cocky
with those statistics about our “balanced” trade relationship or try alarming
individual US legislators, unions, and businesses with musings about a “trade
war.” While Canada is the biggest customer for 35 US states, our economy is more
than twice as reliant on the export of goods and services than is the US (31.5%
of GDP compared to only 12.6%, in 2015). And for our biggest region, swing-vote
Ontario, that reliance is approaching 50%, overwhelming with its
southern neighbor.
The high-tariff
diplomacy of John A. Macdonald and Robert Borden isn’t available to us. It’s a
dangerously credible threat by Trump’s America, but would be a clownishly
obvious bluff for trade-reliant regional economies like ours. The answer to a
superpower bully isn’t tough talk.
5. Sorry,
Trudeau’s sunny diplomacy isn’t naïve or lazy.
A majority of Canadians
and their trusted advisor The New York
Times are enthralled by Joe Biden’s instruction that Canada, with Trudeau, must
carry civilization’s torch through this dark night. Trudeau’s wink-wink southward
asides repeat endlessly: “I share the nausea, but must carry on quietly, for the
sake of our workers and their precious children.”
We have the most
sociable Prime Minister in Canadian history, with a Cabinet that devours
briefing books and advice from Canada’s most glamorous white-collar business:
understanding and lobbying important Americans.
If commercial relations
really do get scary, Canadians will rally behind their constructive Liberal
government, the namesake of the party that has not “sold out” to Washington or
harmed continental interests on Bay Street either.
In any case, no
matter how adaptable their tweeters, Conservative leaders can’t compete against
Liberals or New Democrats with 19th-century Tory insults about vulgar
US politics. If only because their voting base is still genuinely positive about
America and its future.
6. Outflank Trumpism
and Trudeau with better ideas.
We know Trump’s
big-government nationalism won’t work here, and when economic nationalism
doesn’t work, it wastes resources and turns nasty. Also, Trump’s agenda in
Washington may be neutered by a blood bath in the White House. Nevertheless,
his election last November was evidence of trouble in his country and, likely,
in ours. He has torn the fabric of our shared post–Cold War order.
Simply doubling down
on trade diversification, multilateralism, and our unreformed Westminster
democracy would be an all-Canadian reply to Trump all right, but not to the
times. The Conservative Party would remain the status quo’s spare party, with
an anti-liberal name.
Conservatives are
as qualified as Liberals to see the times are changing. However, before being taken seriously as
innovators, they should acknowledge how experience and changes in Canada have
changed them as well. For conservatives, “new” doesn’t go without saying.
--------
For openers and as
a thought experiment—why not do something about that word “conservative”? At
it’s best, it’s a noble, dull word, whether puffed up with hyphens or not. It’s
like a sad Victorian poem one reads, after others act.
Rebranding is both
a painful and profitable industry. While all organizations fear symbolic change
as much as the real stuff, they often profit handsomely when they do. And,
anyway, Conservatives are the least qualified in Canada to get huffy about
nomenclature.
At the time of Confederation,
the word “Conservative” was sprung on Canadians as only the second half of the
“Liberal-Conservative Party.” And over half a dozen times since then, it has
been kept on and taken off the party’s name.
Conservative
virtues, of course, grace politics across the spectrum; otherwise, we would
have destroyed our civilization long ago. Yet, despite how beautifully the conservative
temperament is dressed up in
Masterpiece dramas, today, “conservative” as a political label has been appropriated by sheltered and wealthy US
right-wingers and unlovable organizations that are excited by leaps of faith
and the least-democratic clauses in their county’s liberal constitution.
Furthermore, the
all-powerful creative industries that educated and entertain Generation X and millennial voters has remorselessly linked the word “conservative” with hot
buttons, such as: cold, intolerant, old-stock, complacent, sexist, unfeeling, and antiscience—useful when stuck in a snow bank, but boring.
The postcolonial British
Tory themes of deference toward state power—including a “sober” unelected
Senate and numerous unelected public agencies, as well as economic and cultural
protectionism, European networking and fear of US-inspired populism—are now
nestled in Ottawa at the heart of the Liberal Party of Canada.
As that shift
consolidated after Pierre Trudeau’s return to power in 1980, the traditional, grassroots
small-l liberal constituencies of small businesses, family farms, new
Canadians, and populist democrats shifted in sufficient numbers to secure
Stephen Harper’s three-term, “neo-liberal” prime ministership.
Ideologically, I’d
guess that a majority of Conservative activists, especially in the
growth centers west of the city of Kingston to the Pacific Ocean, are already Canadian-style
libertarians.
These activists are community-minded and
cooperative, not the supposed rugged individualists who, after intense
parenting, survive outdoors in southern California. They’re convinced, however,
that our personal and economic freedoms are under greater threat than central government
and artificial borders, that planners are taken too seriously and markets unwisely
less so.
They champion
public measures to expand workplace training and reduce changing employment
barriers, believing that open economies must remain open to benefit all individuals
and working families. They see greater leisure time as an economic dividend,
not as a euphemism for giving up and parking people who are not earning a
living wage.
Presumably,
they’ve come to see that public “entitlements” (legislatively defined transfers, including
universal health and unemployment insurance in every province and tax credits
and equalization payments) provide more reliable social support than charities
and photogenic guilt-trips. And, as
important, they appreciate that “entitlements” leave people comparatively free,
while leaving bureaucracies profoundly less free to treat people arbitrarily or
bribe and bully businesses, civil society, and other elected levels of government.
While it’s safe to
say they’re not out to create that mythic Anglo-sphere alliance, they do believe
that genuine democracies around the world rely on the United States' commitment
and strength. And they can actually name aloud ones, like Israel, Taiwan, along
with Japan and South Korea.
Feeling comfortable
using the words “libertarian” or “classical liberal,” for that matter, is more important
than rushing to formally change the name of the Conservative Party.
“Canadian” and “democratic” are attractive adjectives. However, they should think twice before
bothering to go back to qualifying the word “conservative”—a noun opinion-makers and educators more powerful than the Canadian Conservative Party have either appropriated or debased.
With luck, however,
once they resolve to free themselves of that noun “conservative,” they’ll be
able to more firmly embrace and promote the truly expansive possibilities of
more stable economic and social relations between our two liberal democracies
and their common global interests, whatever the fate of the Trump presidency.
No comments:
Post a Comment