Unless Stephen Harper has a secret
deal that puts a lie to everything Barack Obama has said in public, he had better
gear up—and be seen in Washington to be gearing up—for another historic
Canadian fight with the Government of the United States. For what it’s worth
from a dry perch in Toronto, I think Harper better be building his new Cabinet
around the approaching Keystone pipeline decision and Canada’s frayed credibility
as an environment and energy regulator.
Harper’s brand is fixed and
will remain as it is long after he leaves politics: he’s an unlovable, ruthless
fighter. This is no time to try on a tender new image. His Cabinet
shuffle should serve the effective SOB he’s understood to be.
Although someone else might fill
the bill, it would seem that it would make the most sense to put MP Chris Alexander
in either the Environment or the Natural Resources portfolio. In either job,
the young man from Ajax-Pickering could be the point man, and prod on Obama’s
Keystone decision.
Alexander would be a gamble—a fighter’s gamble.
He’s not in Cabinet now, but
he is a superb and scrappy debater; is telegenic, from pivotal Ontario; and had
a successful career in Canada’s diplomatic service. Indeed, he was in
Afghanistan standing side-by-side with the Americans.
If Obama chooses to turn down
the Keystone pipeline, it will be because he’s accepted the radical proposition that
it’s his business to manage CO2 emissions in Canada.
Canada isn’t an obvious ally
to put in trusteeship, and climate change is not a file on which Obama is well
equipped to fight. He’s shown no impressive leadership on climate change.
Congress, most polls, and American business overwhelmingly support Canada’s
position. Harper, however, has been an especially reliable US partner and
didn’t climb in Canadian politics playing on anti-American sentiments. At this
moment, Obama may expect a stolid Stephen Harper to accept a “no” decision on
Keystone without making much of a fuss.
Harper had better start
disabusing him of that expectation soon.
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