A quirky element in the
neurotic power relationship between Canada and the United States remains the
uneven significance of saying “no” to the other side. Globe-preening Canadian
governments profit inordinately when they can say “no” to the global power next
door. On the other hand, saying “no” to Canada can be devastating—whether
Washington notices or not.
Last week, former Prime Minister
Jean Chretien and his senior Liberal colleagues gleefully reminisced in the national
media over the 10th anniversary of their un-bidden public declaration that
Canada would reject any request by George W. Bush to support the US-British invasion
of Iraq. That decision to not act stands above all the other things Jean
Chretien didn’t do during his 10 years in office.
Within as many weeks, Stephen
Harper could receive from Washington a “no” of devastating consequences—to his
relationship with the US government, his vision of Canada’s future, his
reputation in Canada, and his chances of surviving another election.
The theatricality of Obama’s
pending Keystone decision is appropriately noted.
There is, in fact, little
American substance at stake in the decision. The thousands of US jobs that wouldn’t
happen along the pipeline will soon be found elsewhere in America’s dirty
fossil fuel Renaissance—and, in any event, their fate pales against the jobs
being killed each month by Washington’s symbolic campaign to fix Washington’s
balance sheet by the mid 2020s. The environmental movement and its latest
campaign recruit, hedge funds magician Tom Steyer, sees the oil sands entirely
in marketing terms.
The lack of showmanship on
the Keystone Project by the Harper government, however, crises out for greater
attention.
With enemies circling, there’s
no way Jean Chretien would have sat still and relied on opposition Congressmen
and Congresswomen and dull Canadian lobbyists to make his case in Washington.
The Prime Minister will not
be credited for playing by Queensbury Rules in Canada and will enjoy no quarter if
he loses like a gentleman in Washington.
(Those of you who think you
have deep inside knowledge that the President has Harper’s back can ignore what
I say next. Those of you who remain nervous might appreciate the following rather
aggressive advice from an Obama Canadian to a quintessentially Canadian Prime
Minister standing in the headlights.)
If you’ve got Goliath on your side, Mr. Harper, don’t
look for your own David; coach Goliath.
The Prime Minister has the
confidence of a big majority in Canada’s Parliament and, as reported by Politico, also has majorities in both the US House of
Representatives and the US Senate. It needn’t be repeated that Keystone also
has overwhelming support among US business leaders and the technocrats the
President relied on to fight the recession.
Don’t wait to mobilize their support after Obama turns
you down. They won’t go back to him after he’s decided. Why not secure a resolution now from Canada’s
Parliament, supplementing what passed last week in the US Senate?
The Prime Minister should be
able to ask his Parliament to be clearer and more aggressive. Conservative and
Liberal MPs, at least, should be able to remind Washington, and the President,
of the support they’ve enjoyed since their economy tanked in 2008; of the
fragility of the present recovery in both countries; and of Canada’s open hand to
jointly tackle climate change, continental security, and economic recovery.
Canadians don’t expect you to need the same face time
with the President that the Prime Minister of Israel has enjoyed. However, they
wouldn’t think it too pushy if you literally went to Washington to make your
case directly to the President—and let it out that you’d be pleased to spell
out politely what’s at stake, before a joint session of Congress.
There is no value in downplaying
the economic consequences of a “no” simply to bolster jobs and housing starts
this spring.
The capital markets, more
likely, would probably appreciate the candor; and Americans would definitely
listen if the Prime Minister argued: killing Keystone now could abort economic
recovery in Western Canada and that could spread across Canada—the United
States economy’s best customer.
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