When she inserts the words
“evidence-based” before a promise—or an accusation—you can be sure you’re
listening to a liberal politician. Police officers and scientists simply present
the evidence. Conservatives probably will add the term to their arsenal soon.
After all, their first loyalty today is to capitalism: humankind's least
sentimental and most opportunistic social invention.
It would be ideal, however, if
politicians across the spectrum actually thought more scientifically as well.
In this month’s New York Review of Books, Allen
Orr hurls science at prejudice and wishful
thinking—the staples of destructive politics:
“This conclusion is remarkable in a couple
of ways. For one thing, there’s not much of an argument here. Instead, Nagel’s
conclusion rests largely on the strength of his intuition. His intuition
recoils from the claimed plausibility of neo-Darwinism, and that, it seems, is
that. (Richard Dawkins has called this sort of move the argument from personal
incredulity.) But plenty of scientific truths are counter-intuitive (does anyone
find it intuitive that we’re hurtling around the sun at 67,000 miles per hour?)
and a scientific education is, to a considerable extent, an exercise in taming
the authority of one’s intuition.”
Taming the authority of one’s intuition, submitting to trial and error and the
evidence, could change liberalism as well as conservative thinking.
Liberals, being every bit
as human as conservatives, adopt prejudices that fit their immediate
circumstances. For most of the last century, they were in power nationally and
wrote the laws. Consequently, they think it's common sense to take action at the
national level, if it’s a big problem. It’s intuitive.
A centralist impulse has
dominated their thinking on healthcare, climate change, even innovation and
urban transit. It’s simply assumed that it can best be addressed, in a timely
way, at the top. That’s arguable; at the very least, it should be more
thoroughly scrutinized by a scientific
education.
The climate change
movement, for instance, took scientific evidence and told the political word to
surrender political science to their numbers. Over 20 years has been
largely wasted as the governments of the world—big and small, rich and
destitute, tyrannies and weak democracies, together—negotiated targets.
At home we talked about
targets too. If your targets weren’t as elaborate as mine, you were faking it. If
you were a leader, your targets were tougher than your neighbor’s. We designed
national "cap and trade" systems that were spiced with references to Europe and
economics, and they were protected from broad scrutiny by being incomprehensible to the
general public.
Science says everything
is connected. Evidence and experience, however, suggest that thunderclaps from national
capitals don’t necessarily change behaviors—or cure problems. Despite what
authoritarians thought, strong central governments and "evidence-based" central
planning aren’t invariably more effective or more efficient in managing change
than decentralized federations and higher prices.
Bring on more "evidence-based" politics. But don’t expect you’ll sleep any easier.
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