Obama didn’t offer Republican
and Wall Street doves a single friendly word during his interview yesterday with
David Gregory on Meet the Press.
However, in an aside on priorities for his second term, he did assert something
potentially historic--an aside that deserves further attention in Ottawa and
Western Canada at least.
Other than simply surviving
Washington showdowns, Gregory asked Obama, what he’d actually like to
accomplish during his last term as President.
Completely unprompted, he
suggest that his number three priority could end up being oil and gas exports.
Here, in his own words, is Obama's new energy vision:
“We've
got a huge opportunity around energy. We are producing more energy and America
can become an energy exporter.”
He didn’t say clean energy, energy independence, or even climate
change. Instead, he ratified what is transpiring in the market place.
The US is coming back as an
energy giant. US regulators are about to approve several liquefied natural gas
terminals, dedicated to global markets. As is already true in Canada, the US
could soon be a major oil exporter as well as a buyer in the international oil
market.
How to champion a fossil fuel
‘Renaissance’ at home and undertake a constructive role globally in addressing
climate change remains to be discovered and fought out.
Nevertheless, as energy
policy, Obama has decided to throw his weight behind trade and against
protectionism and relatively cheap crude oil prices domestically. This choice
is of great potential importance to the politics of the Democratic Party and,
by the way, to the fate of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government in Canada.
Last winter, Harper went whole hog in support of an extremely contentious and commercially fragile Canada-only
oil pipeline to Canada’s West Coast because Obama delayed approval of the
Keystone pipeline project. It sounded like common sense: The US isn’t
co-operating and, furthermore, is now heading toward an oil surplus. Therefore,
Canada is “land-locked” without new east-west pipelines to more lucrative
markets across the seas.
The logic of this Canadian
energy trade ‘emergency’ would make sense if Obama were following the logic of
Pierre Trudeau’s nationalist energy policy (the NEP). If the US decided to
produce an energy surplus to keep oil prices below world prices for American
consumers, Canada would face being restrained and ripped off permanently as a oil
seller.
But, it appears that Democrat
Obama has rejected that option. In fact, he appears to be committed to respect
the logic of global commodity markets and the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement.
In embracing American exports and American shale development, he’s effectively
removed any credible reason to obstruct oil sands imports from Alberta, and the
possible re-sale and re-export of Canadian produced oil to Asian markets.
If Obama honors the logic of
his own statement yesterday, Canada won’t be land-locked.
Canadians needn’t be rushed
to commit to another 20th century 'nation-building' project
and Canadian energy producers can feel confident that they’ll be able to
compete fairly within and through the most laissez-faire energy market in the
world.
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