It’s not up there with the morale of Wall Street executives or
the health of uninsured Americans with pre-existing conditions. However, how
about a little Friday speculation on what the US presidential election could
mean to Stephen Harper, and his chances to accomplish something truly historic
as a Canadian economic reformer?
Like it or not, Harper’s immediate conservative agenda, his
re-election, and any dream he still has to be another great shaper of Canada’s
place on this continent would, by far, be best served by the re-election of
that American liberal Barack Obama.
The cornerstone of his foreign policy—in the Middle East, in
Europe, on climate change, and in responding to the Great Recession, for
instance—is being the US president’s loyal ally. He’s never used any
disappointment in the relationship as an opportunity to build bridges with
Canadians who dislike the US.
The payoff is not yet obvious. Nevertheless, what’s most
important is that his pro-American perspective has not yet done him any harm in
Canada. Harper still has, once the north-south Keystone pipeline is finally
approved, plenty of room at home to go further in rationalizing Canada’s
economic relations with the US—if, in three weeks, the most popular politician
in Canada gets re-elected as president of the United States.
The next step for the Beyond the Border initiative to
lighten the burden of the Canada-US border will likely entail turning “pilot
programs” on information-sharing and joint law enforcement activities into
formal practices. The Harper government also has tabled legislation that will
explicitly set aside numerous Canadian environmental laws to facilitate a new Detroit River crossing
to bolster and secure commerce across the industrial heartland of the
continent.
These measures won’t make history, but they will bend Canadian
sovereignty and give environmentalists more ammunition to attack the Harper
government. They can be pursued, however, at manageable political cost because
deal-making with Barack Obama is popular in Canada, and helping him restore the
American economy is popular as well.
Conversely, if conservatives Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are
elected, Harper will be both branded as a fellow traveler and constrained in
doing anything new and big with Washington.
Setting that aside, why shouldn’t we start wondering what might
be possible in a Barack Obama second term?
American liberals desperately need a new economic growth strategy that would also ameliorate the steady concentration of private economic power. And they need to be seen to have practical ideas to strengthen the US internationally. Canada wants to be a trade and investment power in Asia, but it has no power to protect its interest as an equal.
Harper might consider re-opening those unused binders from
the free trade talks of the 80s. If the Canadian nationalists of the last
century are ever going to be challenged over the limits they’ve set on the
Canada-US relationship, when would be a better time than in the second term of
an immensely popular US president?
If Obama wants to do something bipartisan and of direct interest
to the recovery of US manufacturing and his northern Democrat base, why not
consider seriously a new deal with those peculiar left conservatives in Canada?
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